The global meltdown in equities accelerated overnight with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng equity index falling more than 13% and Japan’s Nikkei index down 8%.
S&P 500 futures were down as much as 7% but have since bounced back to being down 2%. Treasuries rallied overnight in concert with the equity selloff but have since reversed course, with front-end yields currently 1-4 basis points lower and long-end yields 3-7 basis points higher. Volatility is very much alive and well. Bloomberg is attributing the partial recovery in equity losses overnight to increased bets that the Fed will be forced to act sooner and more severely than expected, but Fed leaders remain in a difficult position at this point given inflation concerns. The March CPI report on Thursday headlines this week’s economic calendar, but the market will likely remain much more focused on the Trump administration’s tariff policies and how the economy and inflation will be impacted in future months.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $18.084b | — |
| 4/8/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 99 | — | 100.7 | — |
| 4/9/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.60% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -1.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.20% | 1.10% |
| 4/10/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 320.151 | — | 319.082 | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | 326.41 | — | 325.475 | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | — | 219k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1884k | — | 1903k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Avg | — | — | 223k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | -$130.0b | — | -$236.6b | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 54 | — | 57 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 61.5 | — | 63.8 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 50.8 | — | 52.6 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.10% | — | 5.00% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.20% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 4/14/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.13% | — |
