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Author Jason Haley

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Financial markets are struggling to find conviction in either direction ahead of tonight’s deadline from President Trump related to the Iran war.

Treasuries are little changed across the curve, while US equity index futures are leaking lower (S&P 500 -0.44%). It was a volatile session overnight in oil markets, particularly after Iran state media reported explosions on Kharg Island (unconfirmed by US/Israel). On the data front, durable goods orders were better than expected in February when excluding the extra-volatile commercial aircraft category, which fell 29% m/m. Both orders and shipments of core goods surpassed expectations in February, a positive sign for business capital expenditures.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/7/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —15.250k10.000k     —
4/7/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —26.000k15.250k     —
4/7/2026Durable Goods Orders-1.20%-1.40%0.00%-0.50%
4/7/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.80%0.40%0.30%
4/7/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%0.10%-0.40%
4/7/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.90%-0.10%0.00%
4/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.50%     —3.00%     —
4/7/2026Consumer Credit$10.250b     —$8.050b     —
4/8/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-10.40%     —
4/8/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
4/9/2026Personal Income0.30%     —0.40%     —
4/9/2026Personal Spending0.60%     —0.40%     —
4/9/2026Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.10%     —
4/9/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.30%     —
4/9/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.80%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.00%     —3.10%     —
4/9/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k     —202k     —
4/9/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.75k     —
4/9/2026Continuing Claims1828k     —1841k     —
4/9/2026GDP Annualized QoQ0.70%     —0.70%     —
4/9/2026Personal Consumption2.00%     —2.00%     —
4/9/2026GDP Price Index3.80%     —3.80%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.70%     —2.70%     —
4/9/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%     —-0.50%     —
4/9/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%     —0.50%     —
4/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.70%1.60%
4/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.40%1.30%
4/10/2026CPI MoM1.00%     —0.30%     —
4/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
4/10/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —2.40%     —
4/10/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.50%     —
4/10/2026CPI Index NSA330.485     —326.785     —
4/10/2026Core CPI Index SA334.37     —333.512     —
4/10/2026Factory Orders-0.20%     —0.10%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51.5     —53.3     —
4/10/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%     —0.40%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions53.4     —55.8     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Expectations50.2     —51.7     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —3.80%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.50%     —3.20%     —
4/10/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-1.40%     —
4/10/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.80%     —
4/10/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
4/10/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%     —
4/10/2026Federal Budget Balance-$152.5b     —-$160.5b     —
4/13/2026Existing Home Sales     —     —4.09m     —
4/13/2026Existing Home Sales MoM     —     —1.70%     —
4/14/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —98.8     —
4/14/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —26.000k     —
4/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM     —     —0.70%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM     —     —0.50%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.50%     —
4/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —3.40%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.90%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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