Global markets are taking a pause from the carnage of the last three trading sessions.
Equity markets around the world are in the green, and U.S. equity futures are up 2-3% an hour prior to the open. Treasury yields are up 3-5 basis points (bps), extending yesterday’s selloff that saw long-end yields rise 18-23 bps. The selloff in credit spreads moderated yesterday, with the spread of the ICE BofA High Yield Index widening just 16 bps versus Treasuries following the 103 bps of widening the prior two days. President Trump has threatened another 50% of tariffs on China in response to their pledge of retaliatory tariffs, but on a positive note, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that he and US Trade Representative Jaimeson Greer will take the lead on trade negotiations with Japan.
On the data front, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell more than expected to 97.4, moving back to pre-election levels. The net percent of survey respondents expecting better business conditions fell 16 points from February to 21%, the third consecutive monthly decline and the largest one-month decline since December 2020.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/8/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 99 | 97.4 | 100.7 | — |
| 4/9/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.60% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.80% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.20% | 1.10% |
| 4/10/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 320.167 | — | 319.082 | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | 326.41 | — | 325.475 | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | — | 219k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 223k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1888k | — | 1903k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | -$115.7b | — | -$236.6b | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 54 | — | 57 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 61.5 | — | 63.8 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 50.8 | — | 52.6 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.10% | — | 5.00% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.20% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 4/14/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.13% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -5.5 | — | -20 | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.10% | — |
