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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Global markets are reacting to last night’s 2-week ceasefire announcement in the Iran war.

Treasury yields are 2-7 basis points (bps) lower (bigger move on front-end of the curve), and equity index futures are up roughly 3% a little over an hour before the open. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil futures are down 17% to $91 per barrel. However, trading flows haven’t been completely one-way as some conflicting headlines remain. There were reports of some attacks after last night’s ceasefire announcement, and the Financial Times is reporting this morning that Iran is still demanding fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. In other words, this conflict isn’t fully in the rearview mirror, but the ceasefire headline was certainly enough to fuel a strong risk-on/relief trade. 

Mortgage application activity remains tepid amid the recent uncertainty and increase in mortgage rates. The MBA mortgage activity index fell 0.8% last week, with refinance applications down 2.8%. The average 30-year conventional contract rate fell 6 bps from the prior week to 6.51%, up more than 40 bps since late February. Later today, the minutes of the March 18 FOMC meeting will be released. 

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/8/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-0.80%-10.40%     —
4/8/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
4/9/2026Personal Income0.30%     —0.40%     —
4/9/2026Personal Spending0.60%     —0.40%     —
4/9/2026Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.10%     —
4/9/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.30%     —
4/9/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.80%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.40%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.00%     —3.10%     —
4/9/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k     —202k     —
4/9/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.75k     —
4/9/2026Continuing Claims1829k     —1841k     —
4/9/2026GDP Annualized QoQ0.70%     —0.70%     —
4/9/2026Personal Consumption2.00%     —2.00%     —
4/9/2026GDP Price Index3.80%     —3.80%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.70%     —2.70%     —
4/9/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.20%     —-0.50%     —
4/9/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%     —0.50%     —
4/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.70%1.60%
4/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.40%1.30%
4/10/2026CPI MoM1.00%     —0.30%     —
4/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
4/10/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —2.40%     —
4/10/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.50%     —
4/10/2026CPI Index NSA330.535     —326.785     —
4/10/2026Core CPI Index SA334.37     —333.512     —
4/10/2026Factory Orders-0.20%     —0.10%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51.5     —53.3     —
4/10/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%     —0.40%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions53.4     —55.8     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Expectations49.7     —51.7     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.30%     —3.80%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.50%     —3.20%     —
4/10/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-1.40%     —
4/10/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.80%     —
4/10/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
4/10/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%     —
4/10/2026Federal Budget Balance-$152.5b     —-$160.5b     —
4/13/2026Existing Home Sales     —     —4.09m     —
4/13/2026Existing Home Sales MoM     —     —1.70%     —
4/14/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —98.8     —
4/14/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —26.000k     —
4/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM     —     —0.70%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM     —     —0.50%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.50%     —
4/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —3.40%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.90%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%     —
4/15/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.80%     —
4/15/2026Empire Manufacturing     —     —-0.2     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —1.30%     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —1.20%     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —1.30%     —
4/15/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —1.50%     —
4/15/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.50%     —
4/15/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —38     —
4/15/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
4/15/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —-$25.0b     —
4/15/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$15.5b     —
4/15/2026-4/23/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.10%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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