Market turmoil continues this morning as the trade war persists.
European equities are down 3-4%, and U.S. equity figures are down 1.5-2% an hour before the open. Treasuries continue to sell off as well, with yields up another 8-16 basis points (bps) this morning. So far this week, 2-year and 5-year yields are up 16 bps and 35 bps, respectively, and 10-year and 30-year yields are up 46 bps and 50 bps, respectively. Volatility across asset classes has surged higher this week. For example, the S&P 500 traded in a range greater than 5% for four straight trading sessions. As one commentator highlighted, the only other times this happened were in 1987, 2008, and 2020. In commodity markets, WTI oil futures are down more than 6% today to below $56 per barrel, the lowest since early 2021.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/9/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 20.00% | -1.60% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.80% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Index NSA | 320.167 | — | 319.082 | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | 326.41 | — | 325.475 | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.20% | 1.10% |
| 4/10/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 4/10/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 223k | — | 219k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 223k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1886k | — | 1903k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | -$130.0b | — | -$236.6b | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.30% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.60% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 54 | — | 57 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 61.3 | — | 63.8 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 51.2 | — | 52.6 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 5.10% | — | 5.00% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.20% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 4/14/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.13% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -5.5 | — | -20 | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 20.00% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.60% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -19.3 | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | — | 78.20% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | — | 39 | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$45.2b | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$48.8b | — |
