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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Risk appetite cooled overnight as various headlines suggested that Tuesday’s ceasefire agreement is more precarious than yesterday’s rally would suggest.

US equity futures are modestly lower this morning while oil futures are up 3-5%. Treasury yields are little changed following this morning’s data releases. Personal income and spending growth were weaker than expected in February, and both headline and core PCE inflation matched expectations. Core PCE rose 0.4% m/m for a second consecutive month in February, and the metric was up 3% on a year-over-year basis. All this data obviously preceded the Iran war, so any impact of higher energy prices would not be exhibited.

Yesterday’s FOMC minutes from the March 18 meeting reinforced the idea that the Fed is firmly on hold from a policy perspective amid heighted economic uncertainty. The “vast majority” of participants saw elevated downside risks to both growth and employment and upside risks to inflation even before the Iran war began, and those risks have now only intensified according to the minutes.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/9/2026Personal Income0.30%-0.10%0.40%     —
4/9/2026Personal Spending0.60%0.50%0.40%0.30%
4/9/2026Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%0.10%0.00%
4/9/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.40%0.40%0.30%     —
4/9/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%2.80%2.80%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%0.40%0.40%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.00%3.00%3.10%     —
4/9/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k219k202k203k
4/9/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —209.50k207.75k208.00k
4/9/2026Continuing Claims1828k1794k1841k1832k
4/9/2026GDP Annualized QoQ0.70%0.50%0.70%     —
4/9/2026Personal Consumption2.00%1.90%2.00%     —
4/9/2026GDP Price Index3.80%3.70%3.80%     —
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.70%2.70%2.70%     —
4/9/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%     —-0.50%     —
4/9/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.60%     —0.50%     —
4/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.70%1.60%
4/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.40%1.30%
4/10/2026CPI MoM0.90%     —0.30%     —
4/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
4/10/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —2.40%     —
4/10/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.50%     —
4/10/2026CPI Index NSA330.535     —326.785     —
4/10/2026Core CPI Index SA334.37     —333.512     —
4/10/2026Factory Orders-0.20%     —0.10%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51.5     —53.3     —
4/10/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%     —0.40%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions53.4     —55.8     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Expectations49.7     —51.7     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.30%     —3.80%     —
4/10/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.50%     —3.20%     —
4/10/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —-1.40%     —
4/10/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.80%     —
4/10/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.60%     —
4/10/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.90%     —
4/10/2026Federal Budget Balance-$153.3b     —-$160.5b     —
4/13/2026Existing Home Sales     —     —4.09m     —
4/13/2026Existing Home Sales MoM     —     —1.70%     —
4/14/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —98.8     —
4/14/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —26.000k     —
4/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM     —     —0.70%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM     —     —0.50%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM     —     —0.50%     —
4/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY     —     —3.40%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY     —     —3.90%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —3.50%     —
4/15/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.80%     —
4/15/2026Empire Manufacturing     —     —-0.2     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —1.30%     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —1.20%     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —1.30%     —
4/15/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —1.50%     —
4/15/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.50%     —
4/15/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —38     —
4/15/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
4/15/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —-$25.0b     —
4/15/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$15.5b     —
4/15/2026-4/23/2026Leading Index     —     —-0.10%     —
4/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-22.6     —
4/16/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —219k     —
4/16/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —209.50k     —
4/16/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook     —     —18.1     —
4/16/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1794k     —
4/16/2026Industrial Production MoM     —     —0.20%     —
4/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production     —     —0.20%     —
4/16/2026Capacity Utilization     —     —76.30%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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