Treasury yields are little changed as markets digest yesterday’s FOMC announcement and await tomorrow’s July jobs report.
Yesterday’s guidance from the Fed was largely as we expected, perhaps characterized as a ‘cautiously dovish’ tone. Powell opened the door for a September rate cut, but he was clear about the need for continued moderation in both labor and inflation data leading up to the next FOMC meeting. Simply paraphrased, “we’re not there yet, but moving in the right direction.” Tomorrow’s jobs report will be one critical component of that decision, as will the CPI report on August 14. Regardless, the Fed has clearly moved to a more balanced position with regard to upside/downside risks, even if they don’t feel confident enough to initiate the first rate cut in September. The bond market continues to price for the most dovish scenario, with 75 basis points of cuts currently priced in over the final three meetings of 2024.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 8/1/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 19.80% | — |
| 8/1/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.80% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/1/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 1.70% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 8/1/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 236k | — | 235k | — |
| 8/1/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1855k | — | 1851k | — |
| 8/1/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.6 | — | 49.5 | — |
| 8/1/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 8/1/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.8 | — | 48.5 | — |
| 8/1/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | 51.8 | — | 52.1 | — |
| 8/1/2024 | ISM New Orders | 49 | — | 49.3 | — |
| 8/1/2024 | ISM Employment | 49.2 | — | 49.3 | — |
| 8/1/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.20m | — | 15.29m | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 175k | — | 206k | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -111k | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 141k | — | 136k | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -5k | — | -8k | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | — | 62.60% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.40% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Factory Orders | -3.20% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | -6.60% | — | -6.60% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 8/2/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 8/5/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 56 | — |
| 8/5/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 55 | — |
| 8/5/2024 | ISM Services Index | 51.3 | — | 48.8 | — |
| 8/5/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 56.3 | — |
| 8/5/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 46.1 | — |
| 8/5/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 47.3 | — |
| 8/5/2024 | Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices | ||||
| 8/6/2024 | Trade Balance | -$72.5b | — | -$75.1b | — |
| 8/7/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -3.90% | — |
| 8/7/2024 | Consumer Credit | $10.300b | — | $11.354b | — |
