Non-farm payrolls came in lower than expected, rising 73,000 vs a median forecast of 104,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate for the last two months was revised lower by 260,000, and the rate increased to 4.2%. Yields, particularly those on the front-end of the curve, moved sharply lower. The 2-year declined by 16 bps while the 10-year fell by roughly 9 bps following the release. The cooling of the labor market should keep a September rate cut on the table as the Fed will likely be concerned with the health of the labor market.
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior 8/01/2025 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 104k 73k 147k 8/01/2025 Change in Private Payrolls 100k 83k 74k 8/01/2025 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 0k -11k -7k 8/01/2025 Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg — 35k 150k 8/01/2025 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — -258k 16k 8/01/2025 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.20% 8/01/2025 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.80% 3.90% 3.70% 8/01/2025 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.2 34.3 34.2 8/01/2025 Unemployment Rate 4.20% 4.20% 4.10% 8/01/2025 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.30% 62.20% 62.30% 8/01/2025 Underemployment Rate — 7.90% 7.70% 8/01/2025 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 49.7 — 49.5 8/01/2025 ISM Manufacturing 49.5 — 49 8/01/2025 ISM Prices Paid 70 — 69.7 8/01/2025 ISM New Orders 48.7 — 46.4 8/01/2025 ISM Employment 46.8 — 45 8/01/2025 Construction Spending MoM 0.00% — -0.30% 8/01/2025 U. of Mich. Sentiment 62 — 61.8 8/01/2025 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 67.1 — 66.8 8/01/2025 U. of Mich. Expectations 58.9 — 58.6 8/01/2025 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.40% — 4.40% 8/01/2025 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.60% — 3.60% 8/01/2025 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.00m — 15.34m
Hafizan Hamzah Senior Director, Investment Management Group
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