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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

The Treasury market is giving back about half of Friday’s post-jobs rally, with front-end yields up 2-3 basis points.

Oil futures are up nearly 2% as the Hormuz situation remains unresolved. There are no economic releases today, and beyond geopolitical headlines, market focus shifts to Wednesday’s CPI report for July.  The June CPI report showed a big downside surprise in core inflation, but the current consensus is for the month-over-month rate to bounce back higher to 0.2%.  The soft July jobs report on Friday shifted market pricing for the Fed to stay on hold at the September meeting from a 33% chance to a 54% chance.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/11/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism97.4     —97.4
8/11/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —15.000k
8/11/2026Existing Home Sales4.05m     —4.09m
8/11/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.00%     —-2.40%
8/12/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.90%
8/12/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.30%
8/12/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.10%
8/12/2026CPI MoM0.10%     —-0.40%
8/12/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/12/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —3.50%
8/12/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%
8/12/2026CPI Index NSA333.993     —333.952
8/12/2026Core CPI Index SA336.766     —336.065
8/12/2026Federal Budget Balance-$383.0b     —-$291.1b
8/13/2026Initial Jobless Claims202k     —199k
8/13/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —198.75k
8/13/2026Continuing Claims1795k     —1801k
8/13/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —-0.30%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.10%
8/13/2026PPI Final Demand YoY4.90%     —5.50%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%     —4.70%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —5.10%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%     —0.20%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%     —-0.20%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.40%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.50%
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54.7     —55.2
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54     —54.8
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55     —55.4
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.20%
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%
8/14/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.30%
8/17/2026Empire Manufacturing     —     —15.6
8/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —34
8/17/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$132.2b
8/17/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$232.7b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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