Treasury yields are 1-2 basis points lower to start the day in concert with a modest decline in oil prices.
With no major releases today, trading in interest rate markets should be somewhat subdued leading up to tomorrow morning’s CPI report. On the geopolitical front, Pakistan’s defense minister said that the US and Iran are “close to some sort of arrangement” despite multiple reports showing both sides hardening their positions. President Trump said yesterday that Iran should pay reparations for those killed in attacks linked to Tehran over the years as well as those that died in domestic protests.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 8/11/2026 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 97.5 | 99.8 | 97.4 | — | |
| 8/11/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 11.000k | 15.000k | 14.500k | |
| 8/11/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 8.250k | 11.000k | — | |
| 8/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales | 4.05m | — | 4.09m | — | |
| 8/11/2026 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.00% | — | -2.40% | — | |
| 8/12/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.90% | — | |
| 8/12/2026 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.30% | 0.20% | |
| 8/12/2026 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.10% | 0.00% | |
| 8/12/2026 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.40% | — | |
| 8/12/2026 | Core CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — | |
| 8/12/2026 | CPI YoY | 3.40% | — | 3.50% | — | |
| 8/12/2026 | Core CPI YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.60% | — | |
| 8/12/2026 | CPI Index NSA | 333.992 | — | 333.952 | — | |
| 8/12/2026 | Core CPI Index SA | 336.785 | — | 336.065 | — | |
| 8/12/2026 | Federal Budget Balance | -$346.0b | — | -$291.1b | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 202k | — | 199k | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 198.75k | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1795k | — | 1801k | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 4.90% | — | 5.50% | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.70% | — | |
| 8/13/2026 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 4.60% | — | 5.10% | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 54.7 | — | 55.2 | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 54.5 | — | 54.8 | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 55.1 | — | 55.4 | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.30% | — | 3.30% | — | |
| 8/14/2026 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | — | |
| 8/17/2026 | Empire Manufacturing | 10 | — | 15.6 | — | |
| 8/17/2026 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 33 | — | 34 | — | |
| 8/17/2026 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $132.2b | — | |
| 8/17/2026 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $232.7b | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | — | 8.250k | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | 8.7 | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | 7.10% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.60% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 10.20% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Housing Starts | 1348k | — | 1427k | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.70% | — | 19.00% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Building Permits | 1367k | — | 1374k | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -2.60% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Manufacturing Production MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Capacity Utilization | 76.30% | — | 76.10% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | -5.40% | — | |
| 8/18/2026 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 2.30% | — |
