Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly higher in a very quiet start to the day/week relative to the rest of August.
Over the weekend, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she still sees more upside risks for inflation and that she will remain cautious in considering any near-term policy adjustments. Bowman is known to be on the more hawkish end of the spectrum relative to some of her colleagues. While the market appears more locked in on labor market data at this point, there should still be plenty of focus on this week’s inflation data (PPI on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday). Additionally, July retail sales will be released on Thursday along with weekly jobless claims. This will be the last run of notable data before Powell’s speech later next week at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. We begin the week with short-term rates priced for approximately 100 basis points of Fed rate cuts by year end and another 100 basis points of cuts in 2025.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 08/12/24 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.02% | — |
| 08/12/24 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$242.0b | — | -$66.0b | — |
| 08/13/24 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 91.5 | — | 91.5 | — |
| 08/13/24 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/13/24 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 08/13/24 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 08/13/24 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 08/13/24 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.70% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 08/13/24 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 08/14/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 6.90% | — |
| 08/14/24 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 08/14/24 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 08/14/24 | CPI YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 08/14/24 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 08/14/24 | CPI Index NSA | 314.772 | — | 314.175 | — |
| 08/14/24 | CPI Core Index SA | 318.958 | — | 318.346 | — |
| 08/14/24 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 08/14/24 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.60% | 0.50% |
| 08/15/24 | Empire Manufacturing | -5.5 | — | -6.6 | — |
| 08/15/24 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 5 | — | 13.9 | — |
| 08/15/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 236k | — | 233k | — |
| 08/15/24 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1875k | — |
| 08/15/24 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.50% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.50% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Capacity Utilization | 78.50% | — | 78.80% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 08/15/24 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 08/15/24 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 42 | — | 42 | — |
| 08/15/24 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $15.8b | — |
| 08/15/24 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$54.6b | — |
| 08/16/24 | Housing Starts | 1337k | — | 1353k | — |
| 08/16/24 | Building Permits | 1425k | — | 1446k | 1446k |
| 08/16/24 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.20% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 08/16/24 | Building Permits MoM | -1.50% | — | 3.40% | 3.90% |
| 08/16/24 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -4.5 | — |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 66.9 | — | 66.4 | — |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.3 | — | 62.7 | — |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 69 | — | 68.8 | — |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
