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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Financial markets are responding to a July CPI report that was largely in line with expectations.

There were whispers/worries of an upside surprise leading up to the release, so the initial reaction is a 4-5 basis point decline in front-end Treasury yields. Both headline and core CPI matched expectations, rising 0.2% m/m and 0.3% m/m, respectively. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was a bit softer than expected at 2.7%, and core CPI was 0.1% higher than expected at 3.1%, the highest reading since February. In other news, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose more than expected to 100.3, the highest level since February (pre-Liberation Day). The index remains well below the recent high post-election (105.1 in December). General optimism rose slightly in July, but 21% of survey respondents reported labor quality as their single most important problem, up 5 points from the prior month and the highest-ranked problem in the report.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/12/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism98.9100.398.6
8/12/2025CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%
8/12/2025CPI YoY2.80%2.70%2.70%
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%3.10%2.90%
8/12/2025CPI Index NSA323.286323.048322.561
8/12/2025CPI Core Index SA328.56328.656327.6
8/12/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —1.20%1.00%
8/12/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —1.40%0.70%
8/12/2025Federal Budget Balance-$239.2b     —$27.0b
8/13/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.10%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%     —2.30%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%     —2.60%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%     —2.50%
8/14/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —226k
8/14/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —220.75k
8/14/2025Continuing Claims1967k     —1974k
8/15/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%     —0.60%
8/15/2025Empire Manufacturing0     —5.5
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.60%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
8/15/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%     —0.00%
8/15/2025Import Price Index YoY-0.30%     —-0.20%
8/15/2025Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
8/15/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.30%
8/15/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%     —0.10%
8/15/2025Capacity Utilization77.50%     —77.60%
8/15/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment62     —61.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions67.3     —68
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Expectations58.1     —57.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.50%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
8/15/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$259.4b
8/15/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$311.1b
8/18/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-9.3
8/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —33
8/19/2025Housing Starts1295k     —1321k
8/19/2025Building Permits1390k     —1393k
8/19/2025Housing Starts MoM-2.00%     —4.60%
8/19/2025Building Permits MoM-0.20%     —-0.10%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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