Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Financial markets are reacting favorably to the July CPI report, which matched expectations across the board.

Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while the core measure rose 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Pricing in the fed funds futures market has dropped the implied probability of a September rate hike below 50% in the immediate reaction (42% currently), and Treasury yields are 2-4 basis points lower. The general idea from a market perspective is that these results may ease some Fed leaders’ worries that inflation is heating back up and that a rate hike is needed more immediately (September).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/12/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —3.60%-2.90%     —
8/12/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —0.10%0.30%0.20%
8/12/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —-0.20%0.10%0.00%
8/12/2026CPI MoM0.10%0.10%-0.40%     —
8/12/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.00%     —
8/12/2026CPI YoY3.40%3.40%3.50%     —
8/12/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%2.50%2.60%     —
8/12/2026CPI Index NSA333.99333.918333.952     —
8/12/2026Core CPI Index SA336.766336.789336.065     —
8/12/2026Federal Budget Balance-$346.0b     —-$291.1b     —
8/13/2026Initial Jobless Claims202k     —199k     —
8/13/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —198.75k     —
8/13/2026Continuing Claims1794k     —1801k     —
8/13/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —-0.30%     —
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%     —
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
8/13/2026PPI Final Demand YoY4.90%     —5.50%     —
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%     —4.70%     —
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.60%     —5.10%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%     —0.20%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%     —-0.20%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.40%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.50%     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54.9     —55.2     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.9     —54.8     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55.2     —55.4     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.20%     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/14/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.30%     —
8/17/2026Empire Manufacturing9.6     —15.6     —
8/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index33     —34     —
8/17/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$132.2b     —
8/17/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$232.7b     —
8/18/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —8.250k     —
8/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —8.7     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.50%     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —7.10%     —
8/18/2026Export Price Index MoM     —     —-0.60%     —
8/18/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —10.20%     —
8/18/2026Housing Starts1348k     —1427k     —
8/18/2026Housing Starts MoM-5.70%     —19.00%     —
8/18/2026Building Permits1367k     —1374k     —
8/18/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.60%     —
8/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
8/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.20%     —0.00%     —
8/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.20%     —76.10%     —
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%     —-5.40%     —
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —2.30%     —
8/19/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.60%     —
8/19/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —0

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.