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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are 3-4 basis points lower to start the day, following overnight trading activity.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did his version of “talking his book” in a Bloomberg interview this morning. President Trump has been highly critical of what he considers overly hawkish Fed policy, escalating his rhetoric yesterday to threatening to sue Fed Chair Powell. “There’s a very good chance of a 50 basis point rate cut,” said Bessent this morning, while also suggesting the fed funds rate should likely be 150-175 basis points lower. On the data front, the MBA mortgage activity index rose 10.9% last week, fueled by a 23% w/w increase in refinance applications. The average 30-year conventional contract rate fell 10 bps to 6.67%, the lowest since the week ended March 7, according to the MBA survey. The average 15-year contract rate fell below 6% (5.93%) for the first time since the Liberation Day announcement. Three different Fed leaders will speak at different events today, including one 2025 FOMC voter (Austin Goolsbee).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/13/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —10.90%3.10%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%     —2.30%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%     —2.60%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%     —2.50%
8/14/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —226k
8/14/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —220.75k
8/14/2025Continuing Claims1967k     —1974k
8/15/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%     —0.60%
8/15/2025Empire Manufacturing0     —5.5
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.60%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
8/15/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%     —0.00%
8/15/2025Import Price Index YoY-0.30%     —-0.20%
8/15/2025Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
8/15/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.30%
8/15/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%     —0.10%
8/15/2025Capacity Utilization77.50%     —77.60%
8/15/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment62     —61.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions67.3     —68
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Expectations58.1     —57.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.50%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
8/15/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$259.4b
8/15/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$311.1b
8/18/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-9.3
8/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —33
8/19/2025Housing Starts1295k     —1321k
8/19/2025Building Permits1390k     —1393k
8/19/2025Housing Starts MoM-2.00%     —4.60%
8/19/2025Building Permits MoM-0.20%     —-0.10%
8/20/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —10.90%
8/20/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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