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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are 3-4 basis points lower to start the day on a typically quiet August morning.

Oil futures are down approximately 2%, and S&P 500 futures are modestly higher. On the data front, initial jobless rose more than expected to 209,000 last week, still a historically low figure. July wholesale inflation data were mixed. Headline PPI was unchanged month-over-month versus expectations of a 0.2% increase, while PPI excluding food, energy, and trade exceeded expectations at 0.4% m/m. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is participating in a moderated panel discussion in Dayton this morning. Hammack was one of three dissenting votes at the July 29 FOMC meeting in favor of a 25-basis point rate hike.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/13/2026Initial Jobless Claims202k209k199k200k
8/13/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —199.00k198.75k199.00k
8/13/2026Continuing Claims1794k1777k1801k1799k
8/13/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.00%-0.30%-0.10%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%0.40%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.30%0.40%0.10%     —
8/13/2026PPI Final Demand YoY4.90%4.70%5.50%     —
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%4.20%4.70%     —
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY4.60%4.70%5.10%5.00%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%     —0.20%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%     —-0.20%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.40%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.50%     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54.9     —55.2     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.9     —54.8     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55.2     —55.4     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.20%     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/14/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.30%     —
8/17/2026Empire Manufacturing10     —15.6     —
8/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index33     —34     —
8/17/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$132.2b     —
8/17/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$232.7b     —
8/18/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —8.250k     —
8/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —8.7     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.30%     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.50%     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —7.10%     —
8/18/2026Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —-0.60%     —
8/18/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —10.20%     —
8/18/2026Housing Starts1350k     —1427k     —
8/18/2026Housing Starts MoM-5.80%     —19.00%     —
8/18/2026Building Permits1369k     —1374k     —
8/18/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.60%     —
8/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
8/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.30%     —0.00%     —
8/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.30%     —76.10%     —
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%     —-5.40%     —
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —2.30%     —
8/19/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.60%     —
8/19/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —0
8/20/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook25     —41.4     —
8/20/2026Initial Jobless Claims     —     —209k     —
8/20/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —199.00k     —
8/20/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1777k     —
8/20/2026Leading Index0.10%     —-0.20%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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