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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are modestly higher following the release of the July CPI report, which was largely in line with expectations.

Both headline and core CPI rose 0.2% m/m, as expected, and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI was up 3.2%. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the rebound in shelter costs, with owners’ equivalent rent (OER) up 0.4% and direct (tenant’s) rent up 0.5% m/m. More volatile categories, like used cars, airfares, and apparel were all lower versus the prior month. While still maintaining the overall trend of moderating inflation data, this report doesn’t support the narrative of a sharp slowdown that gripped markets in recent weeks. Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who is a voting member of the FOMC this year, urged caution yesterday regarding the Fed moving too fast or severely in cutting the fed funds rate so that they don’t have to change course once it begins the easing process, echoing similar comments from some of his colleagues over the last week or so.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/14/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—16.80%6.90%—
8/14/2024CPI MoM0.20%0.20%-0.10%—
8/14/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%—
8/14/2024CPI YoY3.00%2.90%3.00%—
8/14/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%3.20%3.30%—
8/14/2024CPI Index NSA314.765314.54314.175—
8/14/2024CPI Core Index SA318.953318.872318.346—
8/14/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—0.70%0.80%—
8/14/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—0.40%0.60%0.50%
8/15/2024Empire Manufacturing-6—-6.6—
8/15/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.40%—0.00%—
8/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%—0.40%—
8/15/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%—0.80%—
8/15/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.10%—0.90%—
8/15/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook5—13.9—
8/15/2024Initial Jobless Claims235k—233k—
8/15/2024Continuing Claims1870k—1875k—
8/15/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.10%—0.00%—
8/15/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%—0.20%—
8/15/2024Import Price Index YoY1.50%—1.60%—
8/15/2024Export Price Index MoM0.00%—-0.50%—
8/15/2024Export Price Index YoY0.10%—0.70%—
8/15/2024Industrial Production MoM-0.30%—0.60%—
8/15/2024Capacity Utilization78.50%—78.80%—
8/15/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.30%—0.40%—
8/15/2024Business Inventories0.30%—0.50%—
8/15/2024NAHB Housing Market Index43—42—
8/15/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$15.8b—
8/15/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——-$54.6b—
8/16/2024Housing Starts1334k—1353k—
8/16/2024Building Permits1425k—1446k1446k
8/16/2024Housing Starts MoM-1.40%—3.00%—
8/16/2024Building Permits MoM-1.50%—3.40%3.90%
8/16/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-4.5—
8/16/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment66.9—66.4—
8/16/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions63.3—62.7—
8/16/2024U. of Mich. Expectations69—68.8—
8/16/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
8/16/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.90%—3.00%—
8/19/2024Leading Index-0.30%—-0.20%—
8/20/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-19.1—
8/21/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——16.80%—
8/21/2024BLS releases preliminary annual payrolls benchmark revision    
8/21/2024FOMC Meeting Minutes————

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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