Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Producer prices rose much more than expected in July, with both headline and core PPI rising 0.9% m/m (0.2% expected for each).

While a large upside surprise on the overall report, the components that feed into PCE were more tame, leading to a more limited market reaction so far. Initial jobless claims fell slightly to 224,000 last week, while continuing claims fell to 1.953 million. The July nonfarm payrolls report suggested that hiring has grinded to a near halt in recent months, but the initial claims data would infer that layoffs remained subdued. The continuing claims data is holding near 4-year highs, corroborating the narrative that while firings remain low, people are still having a hard time finding new jobs at this point. Two regional Fed bank presidents will be speaking at separate events today, including a CNBC appearance by 2025 FOMC voter Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.90%0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.90%0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.60%0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%3.30%2.30%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%3.70%2.60%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%2.80%2.50%
8/14/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k224k226k
8/14/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —221.75k220.75k
8/14/2025Continuing Claims1967k1953k1974k
8/15/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%     —0.60%
8/15/2025Empire Manufacturing0     —5.5
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.60%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.10%
8/15/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%     —0.00%
8/15/2025Import Price Index YoY-0.30%     —-0.20%
8/15/2025Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —0.50%
8/15/2025Export Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
8/15/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%     —0.30%
8/15/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%     —0.10%
8/15/2025Capacity Utilization77.50%     —77.60%
8/15/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment62     —61.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions67.3     —68
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Expectations58.1     —57.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.50%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
8/15/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$259.4b
8/15/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$311.1b
8/18/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-9.3
8/18/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —33
8/19/2025Housing Starts1298k     —1321k
8/19/2025Building Permits1389k     —1393k
8/19/2025Housing Starts MoM-1.70%     —4.60%
8/19/2025Building Permits MoM-0.30%     —-0.10%
8/20/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —10.90%
8/20/2025FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —
8/21/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —224k
8/21/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —221.75k
8/21/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1953k
8/21/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook5     —15.9
8/21/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —49.8
8/21/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —55.7
8/21/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —55.1
8/21/2025Leading Index0.00%     —-0.30%
8/21/2025Existing Home Sales3.90m     —3.93m
8/21/2025Existing Home Sales MoM-0.80%     —-2.70%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.