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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

It’s another sleepy August Friday morning in global financial markets with little directional conviction across most asset classes.

Treasury yields are moving lower on the front-end of the curve after a much softer-than-expected retail sales report for July. Headline sales fell 0.6% given the big drop in gas station receipts following the drop in oil prices, but the control group, which excludes food, gas, building materials, and auto sales, fell 0.4% m/m vs. expectations of a 0.3% gain. The control group is used in the GDP consumption calculation, and this was the biggest 1-month decline since January 2025. The control group decline was driven largely by a 2.2% decline in non-store (online) retailers, the first decline in that category since September 2025. Some are speculating that it was potentially attributable to Amazon Prime Day in June this year (i.e., pulling sales forward). 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%-0.60%0.20%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%-0.30%-0.20%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%-0.20%0.40%     —
8/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%-0.40%0.50%0.40%
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment55     —55.2     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions54.8     —54.8     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55.2     —55.4     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.20%     —
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/14/2026Business Inventories0.10%     —0.30%     —
8/17/2026Empire Manufacturing10     —15.6     —
8/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index33     —34     —
8/17/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$132.2b     —
8/17/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$232.7b     —
8/18/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —8.250k     —
8/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —8.7     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index MoM0.10%     —0.30%     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM     —     —0.50%     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index YoY     —     —7.10%     —
8/18/2026Export Price Index MoM0.00%     —-0.60%     —
8/18/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —10.20%     —
8/18/2026Housing Starts1350k     —1427k     —
8/18/2026Housing Starts MoM-5.70%     —19.00%     —
8/18/2026Building Permits1370k     —1374k     —
8/18/2026Building Permits MoM-0.20%     —-2.60%     —
8/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
8/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.20%     —0.00%     —
8/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.30%     —76.10%     —
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%     —-5.40%     —
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —2.30%     —
8/19/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.60%     —
8/19/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —0
8/20/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook25     —41.4     —
8/20/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k     —209k     —
8/20/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —199.00k     —
8/20/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1777k     —
8/20/2026Leading Index0.10%     —-0.20%     —
8/21/2026Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey    
8/21/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.7     —53.9     —
8/21/2026S&P Global US Services PMI53.9     —54.6     —
8/21/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.5     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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