It’s a full economic calendar today, and the first round of data released this morning was mostly better than expected.
Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell 7,000 from the prior week to 227,000. In another report, retail sales beat expectations in July, with headline sales rising 1% m/m (0.4% expected). The control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 0.3% last month versus an expected 0.1% gain. Treasury yields are up 12-14 basis points in the 2- to 5-year part of the curve in the initial reaction as the market pares back expectations for an outsized 50 basis point cut from the Fed in September.
A bit lost in the shuffle yesterday amid the focus on the July CPI report was the 17% increase in the MBA mortgage applications index last week. This included a 35% increase in refi applications, pushing the refi index to the highest level since April 2022 and the biggest 1-week move since 2020. FHA/VA refi activity was up 49% versus the prior week. The increase in refi activity comes as the average 30-year contract rate for conventional mortgages fell to 6.54%, down from a high of 7.9% last October and the lowest rate in more than a year.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 08/15/24 | Empire Manufacturing | -6 | -4.7 | -6.6 |
| 08/15/24 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.40% | 1.00% | 0.00% |
| 08/15/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.40% |
| 08/15/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.80% |
| 08/15/24 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.90% |
| 08/15/24 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 5.2 | -7 | 13.9 |
| 08/15/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | 227k | 233k |
| 08/15/24 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | 1864k | 1875k |
| 08/15/24 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.10% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| 08/15/24 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 08/15/24 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.60% |
| 08/15/24 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | 0.70% | -0.50% |
| 08/15/24 | Export Price Index YoY | 0.10% | 1.40% | 0.70% |
| 08/15/24 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.30% | — | 0.60% |
| 08/15/24 | Capacity Utilization | 78.50% | — | 78.80% |
| 08/15/24 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | -0.30% | — | 0.40% |
| 08/15/24 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | — | 0.50% |
| 08/15/24 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 43 | — | 42 |
| 08/15/24 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $15.8b |
| 08/15/24 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$54.6b |
| 08/16/24 | Housing Starts | 1333k | — | 1353k |
| 08/16/24 | Building Permits | 1425k | — | 1446k |
| 08/16/24 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.50% | — | 3.00% |
| 08/16/24 | Building Permits MoM | -1.50% | — | 3.40% |
| 08/16/24 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -4.5 |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 66.9 | — | 66.4 |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 63.3 | — | 62.7 |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 69 | — | 68.8 |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 2.90% |
| 08/16/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 3.00% |
