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Author Hafizan Hamzah

Published

Estimated

Yields are close to unchanged to start the day following the release of retail sales data.

July sales rose 0.5% following an upwardly revised June number of 0.9%. The July number came in lower than forecast, 0.6%, but was viewed positively as it dampened concerns over a slowdown. The July increase was broad-based but led by auto sales and online shopping. But spending on food services fell sharply by 0.4% vs +0.6% the month prior, as consumers possibly redirected their dollars towards more essential goods from discretionary items.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
8/12/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism98.9100.398.6
8/12/2025CPI MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%
8/12/2025CPI YoY2.80%2.70%2.70%
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%3.10%2.90%
8/12/2025CPI Index NSA323.286323.048322.561
8/12/2025CPI Core Index SA328.56328.656327.6
8/12/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —1.20%1.00%
8/12/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —1.40%0.70%
8/12/2025Federal Budget Balance-$239.2b-$291.1b-$243.7b
8/13/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —10.90%3.10%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.90%0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.90%0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.60%0.00%
8/14/2025PPI Final Demand YoY2.50%3.30%2.30%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%3.70%2.60%
8/14/2025PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.50%2.80%2.50%
8/14/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k224k226k
8/14/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —221.75k220.75k
8/14/2025Continuing Claims1967k1953k1974k
8/15/2025Empire Manufacturing011.95.5
8/15/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%0.50%0.60%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.30%0.50%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.20%0.60%
8/15/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%0.50%0.50%
8/15/2025Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.40%0.10%
8/15/2025Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.30%0.00%
8/15/2025Import Price Index YoY-0.20%-0.20%-0.20%
8/15/2025Export Price Index MoM0.10%0.10%0.50%
8/15/2025Export Price Index YoY2.50%2.20%2.80%
8/15/2025Industrial Production MoM0.00%-0.10%0.30%
8/15/2025Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%0.00%0.10%
8/15/2025Capacity Utilization77.60%77.50%77.60%
8/15/2025Business Inventories0.20%     —0.00%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment62     —61.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions67.5     —68
8/15/2025U. of Mich. Expectations58.4     —57.7
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.50%
8/15/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%
8/15/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$259.4b
8/15/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$311.1b

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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