Treasury yields are little changed to start a week that will finish with Fed Chair Powell’s annual Jackson Hole speech. Before that occurs, multiple other Fed leaders will speak this week, including the two dissenting voters at the last FOMC meeting (Governors Waller and Bowman) over the next two days. It will be interesting to hear if the July CPI report had any impact on Bowman’s current perspective, given her recent focus on core services inflation, which popped higher last month. The minutes of the July 30 FOMC meeting will also be released on Wednesday. Fed funds futures remain priced for a little more than 50 basis points (bps)of rate cuts by year end and ~125 bps of cuts by the end of next year. Beyond Fedspeak, the data calendar is lighter this week, headlined by August PMI data and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior 8/18/2025 New York Fed Services Business Activity — -11.7 -9.3 8/18/2025 NAHB Housing Market Index 34 — 33 8/19/2025 Housing Starts 1300k — 1321k 8/19/2025 Building Permits 1388k — 1393k 8/19/2025 Housing Starts MoM -1.60% — 4.60% 8/19/2025 Building Permits MoM -0.40% — -0.10% 8/20/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 10.90% 8/20/2025 FOMC Meeting Minutes — — — 8/21/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 225k — 224k 8/21/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — 221.75k 8/21/2025 Continuing Claims 1960k — 1953k 8/21/2025 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 6.7 — 15.9 8/21/2025 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 49.8 — 49.8 8/21/2025 S&P Global US Services PMI 54.2 — 55.7 8/21/2025 S&P Global US Composite PMI — — 55.1 8/21/2025 Leading Index -0.10% — -0.30% 8/21/2025 Existing Home Sales 3.92m — 3.93m 8/21/2025 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.30% — -2.70% 8/25/2025 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index — — -0.1 8/25/2025 New Home Sales 639k — 627k 8/25/2025 New Home Sales MoM 1.80% — 0.60% 8/25/2025 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity — — 0.9 8/25/2025 Building Permits — — — 8/25/2025 Building Permits MoM — — —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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