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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are leaking 1-2 basis points again as Tuesday morning begins.

There has been more of a risk-off tone this week as investors continue to weigh the amount of borrowing in the technology sector and inflation expectations. The 30-year Treasury rate hit another high and is only 9 bps off the 20-year high last hit in 2007. 30-year yield has climbed 40 bps since the end of June, putting further pressure on government financing costs, which further feeds into corporate and consumer loans. On the equity side, S&P 500 futures point to a -0.33% open, with a risk-off tone feeding into equities as well.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/18/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —9.500k8.250k     —
8/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity4.60.58.7     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index MoM0.10%-0.40%0.30%-0.30%
8/18/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.30%0.50%0.20%
8/18/2026Import Price Index YoY6.70%5.90%7.10%6.70%
8/18/2026Export Price Index MoM0.00%-1.30%-0.60%-0.70%
8/18/2026Export Price Index YoY9.70%8.20%10.20%10.00%
8/18/2026Housing Starts1345k1239k1427k1415k
8/18/2026Housing Starts MoM-5.90%-12.40%19.00%19.70%
8/18/2026Building Permits1375k1443k1374k     —
8/18/2026Building Permits MoM0.60%5.00%-2.60%     —
8/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%     —0.10%     —
8/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.20%     —0.00%     —
8/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.30%     —76.10%     —
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%     —-5.40%     —
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY1.10%     —2.30%     —
8/19/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —3.60%     —
8/19/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —0
8/20/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook25     —41.4     —
8/20/2026Initial Jobless Claims211k     —209k     —
8/20/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —199.00k     —
8/20/2026Continuing Claims1788k     —1777k     —
8/20/2026Leading Index0.10%     —-0.20%     —
8/21/2026Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey    
8/21/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.9     —53.9     —
8/21/2026S&P Global US Services PMI54     —54.6     —
8/21/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI53.9     —54.5     —
8/24/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.02     —
8/25/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —9.500k     —
8/25/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —7.4     —
8/25/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%     —
8/25/2026FHFA House Price Index QoQ     —     —0.50%     —
8/25/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.15%     —
8/25/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.63%     —
8/25/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —1.11%     —
8/25/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —5     —
8/25/2026New Home Sales618k     —628k     —
8/25/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-5     —
8/25/2026New Home Sales MoM-1.30%     —1.60%     —
8/25/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90.2     —90.8     —
8/25/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —114.9     —
8/25/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —74.7     —
8/25/2026Building Permits     —     —1443k     —
8/25/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —5.00%     —

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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