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Author Hafizan Hamzah

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Treasuries reversed course overnight, with long-end yields up 5 bps, as higher oil prices stoked inflation fears.

Brent crude rose to over $94 a barrel as President Trump announced that he would economically isolate Iran and its trading partners. The details were sparse, but the rhetoric dimmed hopes for a possible end to the conflict.

Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at 206,000 vs the median forecast of 210,000. Jobless claims remain low, the 4-week moving average sits at 204,000 which is down 8% y/y. Today’s reading reinforces the idea that the labor market is generally stable.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/17/2026Empire Manufacturing1020.615.6     —
8/17/2026NAHB Housing Market Index333534     —
8/17/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —$133.5b$132.2b$131.5b
8/17/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —$172.7b$232.7b$231.2b
8/18/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —9.500k8.250k     —
8/18/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity4.60.58.7     —
8/18/2026Import Price Index MoM0.10%-0.40%0.30%-0.30%
8/18/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.30%0.50%0.20%
8/18/2026Import Price Index YoY6.70%5.90%7.10%6.70%
8/18/2026Export Price Index MoM0.00%-1.30%-0.60%-0.70%
8/18/2026Export Price Index YoY9.70%8.20%10.20%10.00%
8/18/2026Housing Starts1345k1239k1427k1415k
8/18/2026Housing Starts MoM-5.90%-12.40%19.00%19.70%
8/18/2026Building Permits1375k1443k1374k     —
8/18/2026Building Permits MoM0.60%5.00%-2.60%     —
8/18/2026Industrial Production MoM0.30%0.20%0.10%0.30%
8/18/2026Manufacturing Production MoM0.20%0.20%0.00%0.30%
8/18/2026Capacity Utilization76.30%76.30%76.10%76.20%
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.00%-2.30%-5.40%-4.80%
8/18/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY1.10%-2.50%2.30%2.70%
8/19/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-0.40%3.60%     —
8/19/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —
8/20/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook24.847.441.4     —
8/20/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k206k209k212k
8/20/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —204.00k199.00k199.75k
8/20/2026Continuing Claims1788k1799k1777k1781k
8/20/2026Leading Index0.10%     —-0.20%     —
8/21/2026Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey    
8/21/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.9     —53.9     —
8/21/2026S&P Global US Services PMI54     —54.6     —
8/21/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI53.9     —54.5     —

Hafizan Hamzah

Senior Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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