Treasury yields are unchanged ahead of this morning’s release of the government’s annual benchmark revision data for nonfarm payrolls.
There has been much said about this release over the last 24+ hours and coverage in mainstream media given the potential Fed implications and use as political fodder. Whispers from economists that the revision could reveal as much as 1 million fewer jobs created over the last year undoubtedly contributed to yesterday’s Treasury rally as well. That said, estimating the revision ahead of the release is typically a very difficult exercise, but at the same time, speculation of a larger downward revision feeds to the market bias for a weaker economy and, perhaps more importantly, more dovish Fed policy over the next 12 months. Later today, the minutes of the July 31 FOMC minutes will be released, and beyond looking for any expanded discussion of future rate cuts, market participants will also be looking for any discussion of a change in the Fed’s current pace of balance sheet reduction. The Fed’s reverse repo facility has fallen to approximately $300 billion this month, the lowest since May 2021, sparking more market chatter about increased risks of disruptions in short-term funding markets as reserves become potentially more scarce in the coming months.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 8/21/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -10.10% | 16.80% | — |
| 8/21/2024 | BLS releases preliminary annual payrolls benchmark revision | ||||
| 8/21/2024 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 8/22/2024 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.03 | — | 0.05 | — |
| 8/22/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 232k | — | 227k | — |
| 8/22/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1864k | — |
| 8/22/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | — | 49.6 | — |
| 8/22/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 54 | — | 55 | — |
| 8/22/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 53.2 | — | 54.3 | — |
| 8/22/2024 | Existing Home Sales | 3.93m | — | 3.89m | — |
| 8/22/2024 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | -5.40% | — |
| 8/22/2024 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -9 | — | -13 | — |
| 8/23/2024 | Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 8/23/2024 | New Home Sales | 625k | — | 617k | — |
| 8/23/2024 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.30% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 8/23/2024 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | -4 | — |
| 8/26/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 3.90% | — | -6.70% | — |
| 8/26/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 8/26/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 8/26/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/26/2024 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -17.5 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.34% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 5.94% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 6.81% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 99.6 | — | 100.3 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 133.6 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 78.2 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -17 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -9 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -0.1 | — |
| 8/28/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -10.10% | — |
