Treasury yields continue to trade in a tight range ahead of tomorrow’s Powell speech.
The minutes of the July 30 FOMC meeting suggested that the two dissenting votes wanting a rate cut (Waller & Bowman) were truly alone in their positions. The “majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of the two risks.” Granted, this meeting occurred before the release of the July jobs report, which revealed sharp downward revisions to payrolls growth in the prior two months, but it was clear that most felt that the full effects of tariffs could take time to be assessed and ultimately felt. That gets us back to tomorrow’s speech by Jerome Powell. Will he repeat this July 30 view, or will he do as some other Fed leaders have over the last few weeks (post payrolls) and express greater concern about a weakening labor market. On a related note, initial jobless claims rose 11,000 last week to 235,000, still historically low but the highest reading in two months. As for market pricing, fed funds futures currently show a 79% probability of a September rate cut, down from 100% on August 13.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 8/21/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 235k | 224k |
| 8/21/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 226.25k | 221.75k |
| 8/21/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1960k | 1972k | 1953k |
| 8/21/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 6.5 | -0.3 | 15.9 |
| 8/21/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | — | 49.8 |
| 8/21/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 54.2 | — | 55.7 |
| 8/21/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 53.5 | — | 55.1 |
| 8/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | -0.30% |
| 8/21/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 3.92m | — | 3.93m |
| 8/21/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.30% | — | -2.70% |
| 8/25/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.1 |
| 8/25/2025 | New Home Sales | 626k | — | 627k |
| 8/25/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.60% |
| 8/25/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 0.9 |
| 8/25/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1354k |
| 8/25/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | -2.80% |
| 8/26/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -10.3 |
| 8/26/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | -3.40% | — | -9.40% |
| 8/26/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.10% | — | 0.20% |
| 8/26/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.30% | — | -0.80% |
| 8/26/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% |
| 8/26/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.20% |
| 8/26/2025 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 0.70% |
| 8/26/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | -0.34% |
| 8/26/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 2.79% |
| 8/26/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 2.25% |
| 8/26/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -20 |
| 8/26/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -8 |
| 8/26/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 96.8 | — | 97.2 |
| 8/26/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 131.5 |
| 8/26/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 74.4 |
| 8/26/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | 2 |
| 8/27/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.40% |
| 8/28/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 3.10% | — | 3.00% |
| 8/28/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 1.40% |
| 8/28/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 2.00% |
| 8/28/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.50% |
| 8/28/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 235k |
| 8/28/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 226.25k |
| 8/28/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1972k |
| 8/28/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.80% |
| 8/28/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -0.30% |
| 8/28/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 1 |
