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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower as markets await Jerome Powell’s speech later this morning.

Treasury yields continue to trade in a tight range ahead of tomorrow’s Powell speech. There are no data releases today, so for better or worse, the Fed has the full spotlight. Powell is unlikely to commit to any particular path in an effort to maximize optionality. The messaging from other Fed leaders has been more disparate in recent weeks in the wake of the July jobs and CPI report, which provided concerning data points for both of Fed’s primary mandates (full employment and price stability).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/25/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.1
8/25/2025New Home Sales628k     —627k
8/25/2025New Home Sales MoM0.20%     —0.60%
8/25/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —0.9
8/25/2025Building Permits     —     —1354k
8/25/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —-2.80%
8/26/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-10.3
8/26/2025Durable Goods Orders-4.00%     —-9.40%
8/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.20%     —0.20%
8/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.30%     —-0.80%
8/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.30%
8/26/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —-0.20%
8/26/2025House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.70%
8/26/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —-0.34%
8/26/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —2.79%
8/26/2025S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —2.25%
8/26/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-20
8/26/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-8
8/26/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence96.4     —97.2
8/26/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —131.5
8/26/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —74.4
8/26/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —2
8/27/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.40%
8/28/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.10%     —3.00%
8/28/2025Personal Consumption     —     —1.40%
8/28/2025GDP Price Index2.00%     —2.00%
8/28/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.50%
8/28/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —235k
8/28/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —226.25k
8/28/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1972k
8/28/2025Pending Home Sales MoM0.20%     —-0.80%
8/28/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-0.30%
8/28/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —1
8/29/2025Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey   
8/29/2025Personal Income0.50%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Personal Spending0.50%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Real Personal Spending0.30%     —0.10%
8/29/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%
8/29/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.60%     —2.60%
8/29/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.80%
8/29/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$87.7b     —-$86.0b
8/29/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-4.20%
8/29/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-0.60%
8/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —0.10%
8/29/2025Retail Inventories MoM     —     —0.30%
8/29/2025MNI Chicago PMI45.2     —47.1
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment58.6     —58.6
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —60.9
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —57.2
8/29/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.90%
8/29/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.90%
8/29/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-5

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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