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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are little changed ahead of this morning’s speech from Fed Chair Powell in Jackson Hole.

In testimony before parliament, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda held firm on the central bank’s hawkish bias. Ueda said the BOJ will raise rates again if necessary and pushed back on suggestions that it was the primary driver of the Japanese stock market meltdown on August 5. Markets will undoubtedly drill down into every word and phrase used by Powell this morning, but the Fed chair is typically hesitant to provide specific guidance that relies of speculation of future data trends. The most recent message from the Fed has been that risks are now more balanced, and a softening labor market is being more closely watched. As of this morning, fed funds futures are still priced for nearly 100 basis points of rate cuts over the last three FOMC meetings of 2024, although pricing for a 50 basis point cut in September has been pared back over the last two weeks.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/23/2024Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey    
8/23/2024New Home Sales623k—617k—
8/23/2024New Home Sales MoM1.00%—-0.60%—
8/23/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——-4—
8/26/2024Durable Goods Orders4.20%—-6.70%—
8/26/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.00%—0.40%—
8/26/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.10%—0.90%—
8/26/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.10%—0.20%—
8/26/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-16—-17.5—
8/27/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——0.00%—
8/27/2024House Price Purchase Index QoQ——1.10%—
8/27/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.30%—0.34%—
8/27/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——5.94%—
8/27/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——6.81%—
8/27/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence100.1—100.3—
8/27/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——133.6—
8/27/2024Conf. Board Expectations——78.2—
8/27/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-17—
8/27/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-9—
8/27/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-0.1—
8/28/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-10.10%—
8/29/2024GDP Annualized QoQ2.80%—2.80%—
8/29/2024Personal Consumption2.20%—2.30%—
8/29/2024GDP Price Index2.30%—2.30%—
8/29/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.80%—2.90%—
8/29/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$97.0b—-$96.8b-$96.6b
8/29/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM——0.20%—
8/29/2024Retail Inventories MoM0.50%—0.70%—
8/29/2024Initial Jobless Claims235k—232k—
8/29/2024Continuing Claims1870k—1863k—
8/29/2024Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%—4.80%—
8/29/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY——-7.80%—
8/30/2024Personal Income0.20%—0.20%—
8/30/2024Personal Spending0.50%—0.30%—
8/30/2024Real Personal Spending0.30%—0.20%—
8/30/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.10%—
8/30/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.60%—2.50%—
8/30/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%—0.20%—
8/30/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.70%—2.60%—
8/30/2024MNI Chicago PMI44.5—45.3—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment67.9—67.8—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——60.9—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——72.1—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——2.90%—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——3.00%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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