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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are 3 basis points higher in a parallel fashion in a modest retrace of Friday’s post-Powell rally.

The Fed chair sounded much more open to the prospect of a September rate cut relative to his prior guidance. “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” said Powell on Friday. It certainly didn’t close the door on the debate, but it was a bit more dovish than many were expecting. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, a 2025 FOMC voter, was more reserved in his tone Friday, suggesting that he will need to see more data before supporting a rate cut on September 17. There will be multiple data points for Musalem and others to evaluate this week, including July PCE (Friday) and weekly jobless claims (Thursday).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/25/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.11-0.19-0.1
8/25/2025New Home Sales630k     —627k
8/25/2025New Home Sales MoM0.50%     —0.60%
8/25/2025Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-1.7     —0.9
8/25/2025Building Permits     —1362k1354k
8/25/2025Building Permits MoM     —-2.20%-2.80%
8/26/2025Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-10.3
8/26/2025Durable Goods Orders-4.00%     —-9.40%
8/26/2025Durables Ex Transportation0.20%     —0.20%
8/26/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%     —-0.80%
8/26/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%     —0.30%
8/26/2025FHFA House Price Index MoM-0.10%     —-0.20%
8/26/2025House Price Purchase Index QoQ     —     —0.70%
8/26/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA-0.20%     —-0.34%
8/26/2025S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.20%     —2.79%
8/26/2025S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —2.25%
8/26/2025Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —-20
8/26/2025Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —-8
8/26/2025Conf. Board Consumer Confidence96.4     —97.2
8/26/2025Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —131.5
8/26/2025Conf. Board Expectations     —     —74.4
8/26/2025Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —2
8/27/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.40%
8/28/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.10%     —3.00%
8/28/2025Personal Consumption1.60%     —1.40%
8/28/2025GDP Price Index2.00%     —2.00%
8/28/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.50%     —2.50%
8/28/2025Initial Jobless Claims230k     —235k
8/28/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —226.25k
8/28/2025Continuing Claims1965k     —1972k
8/28/2025Pending Home Sales MoM-0.40%     —-0.80%
8/28/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-0.30%
8/28/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —1
8/29/2025Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey   
8/29/2025Personal Income0.40%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Personal Spending0.50%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Real Personal Spending0.30%     —0.10%
8/29/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%
8/29/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.60%     —2.60%
8/29/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.80%
8/29/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$89.7b     —-$86.0b
8/29/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-4.20%
8/29/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-0.60%
8/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%     —0.10%
8/29/2025Retail Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.30%
8/29/2025MNI Chicago PMI46.5     —47.1
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment58.6     —58.6
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —60.9
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —57.2
8/29/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.90%
8/29/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.90%     —3.90%
8/29/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-5

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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