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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A pullback in oil prices is fueling a rally in Treasuries to start the day.

Brent crude futures are down a little more than 3% on the day, and benchmark yields are down 2-3 basis points. The oil selloff appears driven by hopes that yesterday’s economic sanctions announcement from Scott Bessent will be successful, but China’s actions will be key given its role as the largest buyer of Iranian oil. June home price data will be released later this morning, which is expected to show a modest monthly increase in the 20-city index (S&P/Case-Shiller). The July new home sales report will also be released this morning and is expected to show a 1.4% decline in activity versus the prior month.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/25/2026Building Permits1443k1433k1443k     —
8/25/2026Building Permits MoM     —4.30%5.00%     —
8/25/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —11.750k9.500k     —
8/25/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity3.6-10.67.4     —
8/25/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%     —
8/25/2026FHFA House Price Index QoQ     —     —0.50%     —
8/25/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%     —0.15%     —
8/25/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA1.80%     —1.63%     —
8/25/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA1.30%     —1.11%     —
8/25/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index7     —5     —
8/25/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions-3     —-5     —
8/25/2026New Home Sales620k     —628k     —
8/25/2026New Home Sales MoM-1.40%     —1.60%     —
8/25/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence90.2     —90.8     —
8/25/2026Conf. Board Present Situation114.7     —114.9     —
8/25/2026Conf. Board Expectations74.2     —74.7     —
8/26/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.40%     —
8/26/2026Personal Income0.20%     —0.20%     —
8/26/2026Personal Spending0.10%     —0.30%     —
8/26/2026Real Personal Spending0.00%     —0.40%     —
8/26/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.10%     —-0.10%     —
8/26/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.60%     —3.70%     —
8/26/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
8/26/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/26/2026Durable Goods Orders0.50%     —0.50%     —
8/26/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.60%     —0.70%     —
8/26/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%     —1.20%     —
8/26/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.00%     —2.00%     —
8/26/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.50%     —1.50%     —
8/26/2026Personal Consumption3.20%     —3.20%     —
8/26/2026GDP Price Index6.20%     —6.20%     —
8/26/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.40%     —3.40%     —
8/27/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$100.5b     —-$101.5b-$101.4b
8/27/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA-0.30%     —-2.60%-2.40%
8/27/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA-1.00%     —-1.80%     —
8/27/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.00%-0.20%
8/27/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
8/27/2026Initial Jobless Claims208k     —206k     —
8/27/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —204.00k     —
8/27/2026Continuing Claims1792k     —1799k     —
8/27/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity10     —9     —
8/28/2026MNI Chicago PMI57.9     —57.6     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51     —51     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions51.9     —51.8     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Expectations51.5     —50.6     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.30%     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/28/2026Prelim. Benchmark Payrolls Revision193k     —-911k     —
8/28/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —14     —
8/31/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —1.3     —
9/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.2     —
9/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55.4     —55.6     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Job Openings7300k     —7359k     —
9/1/2026ISM Prices Paid71.9     —71.1     —
9/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —56.7     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3232k     —
9/1/2026ISM Employment52.5     —52.8     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
9/1/2026Construction Spending MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1766k     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
9/1/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —6.6     —
9/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.20m     —16.33m     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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