Treasury yields are little changed to start the week, and U.S. equity futures are pointing to slightly higher open for stocks.
Jerome Powell essentially sealed the deal on a September rate cut during his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which lined up with the minutes of the July 31 FOMC meeting a couple of days prior. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” said Powell. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” This would suggest that the only question to answer is whether they start with a 25 or 50 basis point cut on September 18, and this decision may rely heavily on the results of the August jobs report at the end of next week. Fed funds futures remain priced for 100 bps of cuts this year, which would imply one 50 bp cut, but pricing for September is currently between 25-50 bps (33 bps). Regarding Fed balance sheet reduction, neither the FOMC minutes or Powell’s speech addressed the topic, suggesting the Fed has no intention of prematurely ending or further slowing the runoff of its securities portfolio. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by initial jobless claims on Thursday and July PCE on Friday. Three Fed leaders will speak this week, beginning with May Daly (San Fran Fed) this afternoon.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 8/26/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 5.00% | 9.90% | -6.70% | -6.90% |
| 8/26/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | -0.10% | -0.20% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 8/26/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.90% | 0.50% |
| 8/26/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | -0.40% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| 8/26/2024 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -16 | — | -17.5 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | House Price Purchase Index QoQ | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.30% | — | 0.34% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 5.94% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.14% | — | 6.81% | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 100.9 | — | 100.3 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 133.6 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 78.2 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -17 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -9 | — |
| 8/27/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -0.1 | — |
| 8/28/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -10.10% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Personal Consumption | 2.20% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | GDP Price Index | 2.30% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$97.9b | — | -$96.8b | -$96.6b |
| 8/29/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 233k | — | 232k | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1863k | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.30% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -7.80% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Personal Income | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | MNI Chicago PMI | 44.5 | — | 45.3 | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68 | — | 67.8 | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 60.9 | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 72.1 | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
