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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are drifting higher as the market digests multiple economic releases.

Personal income and spending both exceeded expectations in July, but adjusted for inflation, spending was flat versus the prior month. Of greater near-term focus for market participants, core PCE matched expectations, rising 0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y. Separately, durable goods orders rose more than twice the expected monthly pace due to a 12.7% increase in the volatile commercial aircraft territory. Orders excluding aircraft, used as a proxy for future business investment, rose just 0.2% m/m (0.7% expected) following a notable upward revision to the prior month. Business investment was strong (and broader) in Q2, and this is an early look at how Q3 is shaking out for capital expenditures beyond the AI buildout.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/26/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-1.00%-0.40%     —
8/26/2026Personal Income0.20%0.40%0.20%     —
8/26/2026Personal Spending0.10%0.20%0.30%     —
8/26/2026Real Personal Spending0.00%0.00%0.40%     —
8/26/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.10%0.20%-0.10%     —
8/26/2026PCE Price Index YoY3.60%3.70%3.70%     —
8/26/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%     —
8/26/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY3.30%3.30%3.30%     —
8/26/2026Durable Goods Orders0.50%1.10%0.50%     —
8/26/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.60%0.40%0.70%1.10%
8/26/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.70%0.20%1.20%1.70%
8/26/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.00%1.40%2.00%2.40%
8/26/2026GDP Annualized QoQ1.50%1.50%1.50%     —
8/26/2026Personal Consumption3.20%3.40%3.20%     —
8/26/2026GDP Price Index6.20%6.40%6.20%     —
8/26/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.40%3.60%3.40%     —
8/27/2026Advance Goods Trade Balance-$100.5b     —-$101.5b-$101.4b
8/27/2026Advance Goods Imports MoM SA-0.30%     —-2.60%-2.40%
8/27/2026Advance Goods Exports MoM SA-1.00%     —-1.80%     —
8/27/2026Retail Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.00%-0.20%
8/27/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%     —
8/27/2026Initial Jobless Claims208k     —206k     —
8/27/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —204.00k     —
8/27/2026Continuing Claims1794k     —1799k     —
8/27/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity10     —9     —
8/28/2026MNI Chicago PMI57.9     —57.6     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment51     —51     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions51.9     —51.8     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. Expectations51.5     —50.6     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.40%     —4.30%     —
8/28/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.30%     —3.30%     —
8/28/2026Prelim. Benchmark Payrolls Revision185k     —-911k     —
8/28/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —14     —
8/31/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —1.3     —
9/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.2     —
9/1/2026ISM Manufacturing55.4     —55.6     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Job Openings7300k     —7359k     —
9/1/2026ISM Prices Paid71.9     —71.1     —
9/1/2026ISM New Orders     —     —56.7     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3232k     —
9/1/2026ISM Employment52.5     —52.8     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%     —
9/1/2026Construction Spending MoM-0.10%     —-0.10%     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1766k     —
9/1/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
9/1/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —6.6     —
9/01/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.20m     —16.33m     —
9/2/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-1.00%     —
9/2/2026ADP Employment Change39k     —44k     —
9/2/2026Factory Orders0.10%     —-0.30%     —
9/2/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —-0.40%     —
9/2/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —1.10%     —
9/2/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.40%     —
9/2/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.20%     —
9/2/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.40%     —
9/2/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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