Treasuries are little changed in another quiet start to the day as we head into the long, holiday weekend.
The only event on the economic calendar for today is the MBA mortgage applications index, which rose 0.5% last week. Purchase applications were up 0.9% versus the prior week, and refinance applications fell 0.1%. After a 50% increase over a 2-week period in late July/early August, the refi applications index has fallen 15% over the last 2 weeks. The average 30-year conventional contract rate has fallen roughly 60 basis points since the end of June to 6.44% according to the MBA survey, the lowest since June 2023. The downward move in mortgage rates is still not nearly enough to impact the bulk of outstanding mortgage universe from a potential refinance perspective. Observing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities, which include conventional mortgage loans, 80% of all loans are at least 200 bps away from having a 50 basis point refi incentive. And 71% need mortgage rates to fall 300 bps or more. In other news, two Fed leaders (Waller and Bostic) are scheduled to speak at separate events later today, and both are FOMC voting members this year.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 8/28/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.50% | -10.10% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.80% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Personal Consumption | 2.20% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | GDP Price Index | 2.30% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.90% | — | 2.90% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$97.9b | — | -$96.8b | -$96.6b |
| 8/29/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 232k | — | 232k | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1863k | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | 4.80% | — |
| 8/29/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -2.00% | — | -7.80% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Personal Income | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45.1 | — | 45.3 | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68 | — | 67.8 | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 60.9 | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 72.1 | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 8/30/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 9/3/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 48 | — |
| 9/3/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 9/3/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.8 | — | 46.8 | — |
| 9/3/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 52.9 | — |
| 9/3/2024 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 47.4 | — |
| 9/3/2024 | ISM Employment | — | — | 43.4 | — |
| 9/4/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Trade Balance | -$74.3b | — | -$73.1b | — |
| 9/4/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 8184k | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Factory Orders | — | — | -3.30% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 9.90% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | -0.20% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 9/4/2024 | Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 9/4/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.20m | — | 15.82m | — |
