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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

The Treasury curve is twisting flatter this morning, a reversal of this week’s previous trend.

The second estimate of Q2 GDP was revised higher by 20 basis points (bps) to 3.3% q/q (annualized), and on a positive note, it included increased estimates of business investment. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, sometimes referred to as “core GDP” was revised higher by 70 bps to 1.9%, still below last year’s range (2.7%-3.4%) but now flat to the Q1 growth rate. On the labor market front, initial jobless claims fell back below 230,000 last week. While hiring may be subdued according to the recent nonfarm payrolls report, weekly jobless claims data suggests that firings have been more limited in recent months as well. Later today, Fed Governor Chris Waller will speak at an event in Miami. Waller is one of the White House’s candidates to replace Jerome Powell and will likely maintain his call for rate cuts.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/28/2025GDP Annualized QoQ3.10%3.30%3.00%
8/28/2025Personal Consumption1.60%1.60%1.40%
8/28/2025GDP Price Index2.00%2.00%2.00%
8/28/2025Core PCE Price Index QoQ2.50%2.50%2.50%
8/28/2025Initial Jobless Claims230k229k235k
8/28/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —228.50k226.25k
8/28/2025Continuing Claims1966k1954k1972k
8/28/2025Pending Home Sales MoM-0.20%     —-0.80%
8/28/2025Pending Home Sales NSA YoY0.10%     —-0.30%
8/28/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1     —1
8/29/2025Bloomberg Aug. United States Economic Survey   
8/29/2025Personal Income0.40%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Personal Spending0.50%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Real Personal Spending0.30%     —0.10%
8/29/2025PCE Price Index MoM0.20%     —0.30%
8/29/2025PCE Price Index YoY2.60%     —2.60%
8/29/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM0.30%     —0.30%
8/29/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —2.80%
8/29/2025Advance Goods Trade Balance-$90.0b     —-$86.0b
8/29/2025Advance Goods Imports MoM SA     —     —-4.20%
8/29/2025Advance Goods Exports MoM SA     —     —-0.60%
8/29/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.10%
8/29/2025Retail Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.30%
8/29/2025MNI Chicago PMI46.5     —47.1
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment58.6     —58.6
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions60.8     —60.9
8/29/2025U. of Mich. Expectations57.5     —57.2
8/29/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation5.00%     —4.90%
8/29/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.90%     —3.90%
8/29/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-5
9/2/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —53.3
9/2/2025ISM Manufacturing48.9     —48
9/2/2025ISM Prices Paid     —     —64.8
9/2/2025ISM New Orders     —     —47.1
9/2/2025ISM Employment     —     —43.4
9/2/2025Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —-0.40%
9/3/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.50%
9/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings     —     —7437k
9/3/2025JOLTS Job Openings Rate     —     —4.40%
9/3/2025JOLTS Quits Level     —     —3142k
9/3/2025JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —2.00%
9/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1604k
9/3/2025JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.00%
9/3/2025Factory Orders-1.40%     —-4.80%
9/3/2025Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.40%
9/3/2025Durable Goods Orders     —     —-2.80%
9/3/2025Durables Ex Transportation     —     —1.10%
9/3/2025Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.10%
9/3/2025Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.70%
9/3/2025Fed Releases Beige Book   
9/3/2025Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.00m     —16.41m
9/4/2025Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —139.80%
9/4/2025ADP Employment Change70k     —104k
9/4/2025Nonfarm Productivity     —     —2.40%
9/4/2025Unit Labor Costs     —     —1.60%
9/4/2025Initial Jobless Claims     —     —229k
9/4/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —228.50k
9/4/2025Continuing Claims     —     —1954k
9/4/2025Trade Balance-$62.6b     —-$60.2b
9/4/2025Exports MoM     —     —-0.50%
9/4/2025Imports MoM     —     —-3.70%
9/4/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —55.4
9/4/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —55.4
9/4/2025ISM Services Index50.5     —50.1
9/4/2025ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —69.9
9/4/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —50.3
9/4/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —46.4

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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