Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points (bps) higher following the release of an upwardly revised Q2 GDP report and another solid jobless claims figure.
The second estimate of Q2 GDP was revised 20 bps higher to 3% q/q (annualized), boosted by a 70 bps upward revision to personal consumption. Final sales to domestic purchasers, which excludes the impacts of trade and inventories (“core” GDP), was revised up to 2.9% from 2.7% in the prior estimate. The sell-off in Treasuries is somewhat muted perhaps because the GDP inflation metric (Core PCE q/q) was revised 10 bps lower to 2.8%. In more timely news, initial jobless claims fell slightly last week to 231,000 (232,000 expected). Markets will likely wait for next Friday’s August jobs report to reach a final verdict, but the odds of an oversized 50 bps rate cut in September should be lower following today’s data.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 08/29/24 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.80% | 3.00% | 2.80% |
| 08/29/24 | Personal Consumption | 2.20% | 2.90% | 2.30% |
| 08/29/24 | GDP Price Index | 2.30% | 2.50% | 2.30% |
| 08/29/24 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.90% | 2.80% | 2.90% |
| 08/29/24 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$97.8b | -$102.7b | -$96.8b |
| 08/29/24 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 08/29/24 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.80% | 0.70% |
| 08/29/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 232k | 231k | 232k |
| 08/29/24 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | 1868k | 1863k |
| 08/29/24 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | 4.80% |
| 08/29/24 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -2.00% | — | -7.80% |
| 08/30/24 | Personal Income | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 08/30/24 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.30% |
| 08/30/24 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 08/30/24 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 08/30/24 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.50% |
| 08/30/24 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 08/30/24 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.60% |
| 08/30/24 | MNI Chicago PMI | 44.8 | — | 45.3 |
| 08/30/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 68 | — | 67.8 |
| 08/30/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 60.9 |
| 08/30/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 72.1 |
| 08/30/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% |
| 08/30/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% |
