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Author Jason Haley

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Oil prices are down roughly 6% after the White House held off on Iran strikes over the weekend.

Treasury yields are 5-6 basis points lower across the curve, and equity futures are higher, albeit a more modest reaction relative to other markets. July ISM manufacturing data will be released later this morning, which is expected to show slight improvement in activity and prices paid. The biggest item on the economic calendar this week is the July jobs report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to add 80,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/3/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI53.8     —53.8     —
8/3/2026ISM Manufacturing53.9     —53.3     —
8/3/2026ISM Prices Paid71     —73     —
8/3/2026ISM New Orders56.7     —56     —
8/3/2026ISM Employment50     —49.7     —
8/3/2026Construction Spending MoM0.20%     —0.10%     —
8/3/2026Omdia Total Vehicle Sales16.32m     —16.52m     —
8/4/2026Trade Balance-$73.0b     —-$77.6b     —
8/4/2026Imports MoM-1.90%     —3.30%     —
8/4/2026Exports MoM-1.10%     —-3.20%     —
8/4/2026Factory Orders0.20%     —-1.30%     —
8/4/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans0.70%     —1.90%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Job Openings7504k     —7594k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Job Openings Rate4.40%     —4.60%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Quits Level3064k     —3065k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Quits Rate     —     —1.90%     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Layoffs Level     —     —1708k     —
8/4/2026JOLTS Layoffs Rate     —     —1.10%     —
8/4/2026Durable Goods Orders0.30%     —0.30%     —
8/4/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.60%     —0.60%     —
8/4/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%     —0.90%     —
8/4/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —1.90%     —
8/5/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-6.40%     —
8/5/2026ADP Employment Change65k     —98k     —
8/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI53.6     —53.6     —
8/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53.6     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Index54.5     —54     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid65     —67.7     —
8/5/2026ISM Services New Orders56     —55.1     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Employment51     —51.2     —
8/6/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-4.50%     —
8/6/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —45849     —
8/6/2026Nonfarm Productivity0.50%     —0.30%     —
8/6/2026Unit Labor Costs2.10%     —1.80%     —
8/6/2026Initial Jobless Claims202k     —197k     —
8/6/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.75k     —
8/6/2026Continuing Claims1785k     —1782k     —
8/6/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
8/6/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —3.40%     —
8/7/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls80k     —57k     —
8/7/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-74k     —
8/7/2026Change in Private Payrolls86k     —49k     —
8/7/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls3k     —3k     —
8/7/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —111k     —
8/7/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
8/7/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.50%     —3.50%     —
8/7/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
8/7/2026Unemployment Rate4.20%     —4.20%     —
8/7/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%     —61.50%     —
8/7/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%     —
8/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.67%     —
8/7/2026Consumer Credit$11.200b     —-$0.182b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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