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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are drifting a few basis points higher on the front end of the curve after personal income and inflation-adjusted personal spending exceeded expectations in July, and PCE was largely in line with expectations.

Core PCE rose 0.161% m/m in July on an unrounded basis, essentially unchanged from last month’s 0.163% rate. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE held steady at 2.6%. The market is much more focused on labor market data at this point, and next Friday’s August payrolls report is perhaps the most anticipated data release ahead of the September 18 FOMC decision. There is no early close in the bond market today, but it should be relatively quiet for the rest of the day with trading desks thinly staffed heading into the Labor Day weekend.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/30/2024Personal Income0.20%0.30%0.20%—
8/30/2024Personal Spending0.50%0.50%0.30%—
8/30/2024Real Personal Spending0.30%0.40%0.20%0.30%
8/30/2024PCE Price Index MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%—
8/30/2024PCE Price Index YoY2.50%2.50%2.50%—
8/30/2024Core PCE Price Index MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%—
8/30/2024Core PCE Price Index YoY2.70%2.60%2.60%—
8/30/2024MNI Chicago PMI44.8—45.3—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment68.1—67.8—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions61.2—60.9—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. Expectations72.4—72.1—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%—2.90%—
8/30/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
9/3/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI48.1—48—
9/3/2024Construction Spending MoM0.10%—-0.30%—
9/3/2024ISM Manufacturing47.5—46.8—
9/3/2024ISM Prices Paid——52.9—
9/3/2024ISM New Orders——47.4—
9/3/2024ISM Employment——43.4—
9/4/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——0.50%—
9/4/2024Trade Balance-$78.5b—-$73.1b—
9/4/2024JOLTS Job Openings8100k—8184k—
9/4/2024Factory Orders4.60%—-3.30%—
9/4/2024Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.10%—
9/4/2024Durable Goods Orders——9.90%—
9/4/2024Durables Ex Transportation——-0.20%—
9/4/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——-0.10%—
9/4/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——-0.40%—
9/4/2024Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book    
9/4/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.40m—15.82m—
9/5/2024Challenger Job Cuts YoY——9.20%—
9/5/2024ADP Employment Change145k—122k—
9/5/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.40%—2.30%—
9/5/2024Unit Labor Costs0.90%—0.90%—
9/5/2024Initial Jobless Claims——231k—
9/5/2024Continuing Claims——1868k—
9/5/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——55.2—
9/5/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.1—
9/5/2024ISM Services Index50.9—51.4—
9/5/2024ISM Services Prices Paid——57—
9/5/2024ISM Services Employment——51.1—
9/5/2024ISM Services New Orders——52.4—
9/6/2024Two-Month Payroll Net Revision——-29k—
9/6/2024Change in Nonfarm Payrolls163k—114k—
9/6/2024Change in Private Payrolls148k—97k—
9/6/2024Change in Manufact. Payrolls——1k—
9/6/2024Unemployment Rate4.20%—4.30%—
9/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%—0.20%—
9/6/2024Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%—3.60%—
9/6/2024Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3—34.2—
9/6/2024Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%—
9/6/2024Underemployment Rate——7.80%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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