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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are leaking 1-2 basis points higher following a quiet summer trading session overnight.

The trade deficit shrank slightly more than expected in June to $60.2 billion, as import growth was more negative (-0.37% m/m) than export growth (-0.5% m/m). Later this morning, ISM services data will be released, which is expected to show modest expansion of activity in July. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested yesterday that a September rate cut may be more likely following the soft July jobs data. Regarding the risks of more than 2 rate cuts in 2025 versus less than two, she said that the former is “more likely” than the latter. Daly is not a voting member of the FOMC this year or next.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/5/2025Trade Balance-$61.0b-$60.2b-$71.5b
8/5/2025Exports MoM     —-0.50%-4.00%
8/5/2025Imports MoM     —-3.70%-0.10%
8/5/2025S&P Global US Services PMI55.2     —55.2
8/5/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI54.6     —54.6
8/5/2025ISM Services Index51.5     —50.8
8/5/2025ISM Services Prices Paid66.5     —67.5
8/5/2025ISM Services New Orders     —     —51.3
8/5/2025ISM Services Employment     —     —47.2
8/6/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-3.80%
8/7/2025Nonfarm Productivity2.00%     —-1.50%
8/7/2025Unit Labor Costs1.50%     —6.60%
8/7/2025Initial Jobless Claims222k     —218k
8/7/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —221.00k
8/7/2025Continuing Claims1950k     —1946k
8/7/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.20%     —-0.30%
8/7/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%     —0.20%
8/7/2025NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.02%
8/7/2025Consumer Credit$7.350b     —$5.102b
8/12/2025NFIB Small Business Optimism99     —98.6
8/12/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.00%
8/12/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.70%
8/12/2025CPI MoM0.20%     —0.30%
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%
8/12/2025CPI YoY2.80%     —2.70%
8/12/2025CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.00%     —2.90%
8/12/2025CPI Index NSA     —     —322.561
8/12/2025CPI Core Index SA     —     —327.6
8/12/2025Federal Budget Balance     —     —$27.0b

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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