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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are modestly lower on the long-end of the curve in relatively quiet trading.

President Trump is again promising another deal with Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz as early as today, which boosted risk assets yesterday. Equity futures are pointing higher again this morning. The MBA mortgage activity index fell 2.9% last week, including a 3.6% decline in purchase applications and a 1.9% decline in refinance applications. The average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 5 bps to 6.81%, a 12-month high. The Treasury Department released its updated quarterly issuance guidance this morning with no material changes from the prior quarter. The “looking ahead” guidance continues to note that it is evaluating potential future increases in auction sizes (i.e., the amount of issuance).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
8/5/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-2.90%-6.40%     —
8/5/2026ADP Employment Change65k44k98k95k
8/5/2026US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement    
8/5/2026S&P Global US Services PMI53.6     —53.6     —
8/5/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —53.6     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Index54.5     —54     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Prices Paid65     —67.7     —
8/5/2026ISM Services New Orders55.9     —55.1     —
8/5/2026ISM Services Employment51.2     —51.2     —
8/6/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-4.50%     —
8/6/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —45849     —
8/6/2026Nonfarm Productivity0.60%     —0.30%     —
8/6/2026Unit Labor Costs2.10%     —1.80%     —
8/6/2026Initial Jobless Claims205k     —197k     —
8/6/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —202.75k     —
8/6/2026Continuing Claims1790k     —1782k     —
8/6/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
8/6/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —3.40%     —
8/7/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls80k     —57k     —
8/7/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-74k     —
8/7/2026Change in Private Payrolls80k     —49k     —
8/7/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls3k     —3k     —
8/7/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —111k     —
8/7/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.30%     —
8/7/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.50%     —3.50%     —
8/7/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
8/7/2026Unemployment Rate4.20%     —4.20%     —
8/7/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%     —61.50%     —
8/7/2026Underemployment Rate     —     —7.90%     —
8/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.67%     —
8/7/2026Consumer Credit$11.600b     —-$0.182b     —
8/11/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism     —     —97.4     —
8/11/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —15.000k     —
8/11/2026Existing Home Sales4.07m     —4.09m     —
8/11/2026Existing Home Sales MoM     —     —-2.40%     —
8/12/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.90%     —
8/12/2026CPI MoM0.20%     —-0.40%     —
8/12/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.00%     —
8/12/2026CPI YoY3.50%     —3.50%     —
8/12/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%     —
8/12/2026CPI Index NSA     —     —333.952     —
8/12/2026Core CPI Index SA     —     —336.065     —
8/12/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.10%     —
8/12/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.30%     —
8/12/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$120.3b     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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