A quiet overnight session saw the Treasury curve bear steepen by 1-2 basis points amid a modest rally in oil prices and ahead of today’s $42 billion 10-year note auction. In the only official data release for today, the MBA mortgage activity index rose 3.1% last week, driven by a 5.2% increase in refinance applications and a 1.5% increase in purchase applications. The increase in refi activity corresponded with a 6-basis point decline in the average 30-year conventional contract rate (6.77%) and a 9-basis point decline in the average 15-year rate (6.03%) according to the MBA survey. Three Fed leaders will speak at two separate events today (Cook, Collins, and Daly), with one of the three a non-voter of the FOMC this year (Daly).
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Survey Actual Prior 8/6/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — 3.10% -3.80% 8/7/2025 Nonfarm Productivity 2.00% — -1.50% 8/7/2025 Unit Labor Costs 1.50% — 6.60% 8/7/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 222k — 218k 8/7/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — — 221.00k 8/7/2025 Continuing Claims 1950k — 1946k 8/7/2025 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.20% — -0.30% 8/7/2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% — 0.20% 8/7/2025 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.02% 8/7/2025 Consumer Credit $7.350b — $5.102b 8/12/2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism 99 — 98.6 8/12/2025 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — 1.00% 8/12/2025 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — 0.70% 8/12/2025 CPI MoM 0.20% — 0.30% 8/12/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.30% — 0.20% 8/12/2025 CPI YoY 2.80% — 2.70% 8/12/2025 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 3.00% — 2.90% 8/12/2025 CPI Index NSA — — 322.561 8/12/2025 CPI Core Index SA — — 327.6 8/12/2025 Federal Budget Balance — — $27.0b 8/13/2025 MBA Mortgage Applications — — 3.10%
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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