Following months of negotiations, the majority of President Trump’s tariff policies officially went into effect Thursday morning. The average U.S. trade partner will face an approximate 15% levy, the highest level since World War II. Still on the docket are trade deals with China, Mexico, and Canada, as well as the administration’s plan for both semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Elsewhere, continuing jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 1.97mm at the end of July, an increase of 38,000 claims. Following the July jobs report, which included large downward revisions to May and June estimates – and coupled with President Trump’s economic policy – market participants continue to keep close tabs on potential softening in the labor market.
Michael Oravetz Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised 8/7/2025 Nonfarm Productivity 2.00% 2.40% -1.50% -1.80% 8/7/2025 Unit Labor Costs 1.50% 1.60% 6.60% 6.90% 8/7/2025 Initial Jobless Claims 222k 226k 218k 219k 8/7/2025 Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg — 220.75k 221.00k 221.25k 8/7/2025 Continuing Claims 1950k 1974k 1946k 1936k 8/7/2025 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.10% — -0.30% — 8/7/2025 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.20% — 0.20% — 8/7/2025 NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations — — 3.02% — 8/7/2025 Consumer Credit $7.500b — $5.102b —
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