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Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are rallying sharply following the soft jobs report this morning with 2s – 10s down anywhere from 7-9 bps.

Nonfarm Payrolls fell 23k while also having the past 2 months of data revised downward by 103k. In concert with rates rallying, the likelihood of a Fed cut at the September FOMC meeting has dropped by nearly 20% based on Fed Funds Futures pricing. Equity futures are signaling a continued rally to finish the week. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are on pace to have their best week since April.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
8/7/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls80k-23k57k
8/7/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —-103k-74k
8/7/2026Change in Private Payrolls82k30k49k
8/7/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls4k5k3k
8/7/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —20k111k
8/7/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.10%0.30%
8/7/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.50%3.20%3.50%
8/7/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.334.3
8/7/2026Unemployment Rate4.20%4.10%4.20%
8/7/2026Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%61.40%61.50%
8/7/2026Underemployment Rate8.00%7.90%7.90%
8/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.69%     —3.67%
8/7/2026Consumer Credit$11.850b     —-$0.182b
8/11/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism97.3     —97.4
8/11/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —15.000k
8/11/2026Existing Home Sales4.05m     —4.09m
8/11/2026Existing Home Sales MoM-1.00%     —-2.40%
8/12/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-2.90%
8/12/2026CPI MoM0.10%     —-0.40%
8/12/2026Core CPI MoM0.20%     —0.00%
8/12/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —3.50%
8/12/2026Core CPI YoY2.50%     —2.60%
8/12/2026CPI Index NSA334.3     —333.952
8/12/2026Core CPI Index SA336.6     —336.065
8/12/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.10%
8/12/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.30%
8/12/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$291.1b
8/13/2026Initial Jobless Claims203k     —199k
8/13/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —198.75k
8/13/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1801k
8/13/2026PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%     —-0.30%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%     —0.20%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%     —0.10%
8/13/2026PPI Final Demand YoY4.80%     —5.50%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.20%     —4.70%
8/13/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY     —     —5.10%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%     —0.20%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%     —-0.20%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%     —0.40%
8/14/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%     —0.50%
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment54.1     —55.2
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions55     —54.8
8/14/2026U. of Mich. Expectations55     —55.4
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%     —4.20%
8/14/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.30%
8/14/2026Business Inventories     —     —0.30%

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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