Treasury yields are 2-6 basis points higher/steeper to start the month in sympathy with Japanese bond yields following hawkish guidance from the Bank of Japan.
Risk assets are opening December on a softer note as well, with S&P 500 futures down 0.65% nearly an hour before the open, and crypto assets are weaker again today, with Bitcoin down 6% and back below $86,000. Fed funds futures are now effectively pricing a 100% probability of a December rate cut, trending that direction ever since the September jobs report released on November 20 showed a slight uptick in the headline unemployment rate. ISM manufacturing data for November will be released later this morning, and looking ahead, Friday’s personal income and PCE report for October will be the final top tier data released prior to the December 10 FOMC meeting.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | — | 51.9 | — |
| 12/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 49 | — | 48.7 | — |
| 12/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 57.5 | — | 58 | — |
| 12/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 49.4 | — |
| 12/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 46 | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/12/2025 | Housing Starts | 1330k | — | 1307k | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/19/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.00% | -0.10% |
| 12/01/2025-12/19/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | — | — | -$85.5b | -$84.3b |
| 12/01/2025-12/24/2025 | Leading Index | -0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/31/2025 | Advance Goods Exports MoM SA | — | — | -1.30% | -0.20% |
| 12/01/2025-12/31/2025 | Advance Goods Imports MoM SA | — | — | -7.00% | -6.60% |
| 12/01/2025-12/12/2025 | Building Permits | 1349k | — | 1330k | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/12/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/12/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 1.40% | — | — | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/10/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/12/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/10/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/19/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/10/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/10/2025 | Factory Orders | 0.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/10/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales | 716k | — | — | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/10/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -10.60% | — | — | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/20/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/31/2025 | Trade Balance | -$63.2b | — | -$59.6b | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/31/2025 | Exports MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/01/2025-12/31/2025 | Imports MoM | — | — | -5.10% | — |
| 12/2/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.40m | — | 15.32m | — |
| 12/3/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 10k | — | 42k | — |
| 12/3/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/3/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/3/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 0.40% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/3/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/3/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 12/3/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.20% | — | 77.40% | 75.80% |
| 12/3/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.20% | 0.10% |
| 12/3/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | -0.10% |
| 12/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55 | — | 55 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.8 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | 52 | — | 52.4 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 70 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 56.2 | — |
| 12/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 48.2 | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 175.30% | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | — | 153074 | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 216k | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 223.75k | — |
| 12/4/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1959k | — | 1960k | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Personal Income | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.10% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | — | — | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 52 | — | 51 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 52.4 | — | 51.1 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 51 | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 12/5/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.40% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 12/5/2025 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | $13.093b | — |
| 12/05/2025-12/19/2025 | Business Inventories | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/8/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.24% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Income | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Spending | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/26/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | — | — |
| 12/08/2025-12/19/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | — | — | — | — |
