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Author Jason Haley

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Treasury yields are 1-4 basis points higher (and steeper) following a relatively quiet overnight session.

Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper to start the week. PIMCO, one of the world’s largest fixed income asset managers, said yesterday that it was cutting exposure to long-term U.S. government debt because of deteriorating fiscal deficit dynamics and potential inflation catalysts from tariffs and immigration restrictions on the labor force. The commentary was titled “Thoughts from the Bond Vigilantes,” a reference originally coined by Ed Yardeni in the 1980s but made famous during the Clinton administration in 1993/94 when large bond investors initiated a wave of selling in Treasuries that pushed 10-year yields nearly 300 bps higher in less than a year over concerns about federal spending. Later today, the Treasury will issue $58 billion of new 3-year notes, and the next major economic data release will be tomorrow’s November CPI report, which is expected to show a third consecutive 0.3% monthly increase in core prices.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/10/2024NFIB Small Business Optimism95.3101.793.7—
12/10/2024Nonfarm Productivity2.20%2.20%2.20%—
12/10/2024Unit Labor Costs1.30%0.80%1.90%—
12/11/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——2.80%—
12/11/2024CPI MoM0.30%—0.20%—
12/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%—0.30%—
12/11/2024CPI YoY2.70%—2.60%—
12/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%—3.30%—
12/11/2024CPI Index NSA315.32—315.664—
12/11/2024CPI Core Index SA322.41—321.666—
12/11/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY——1.40%—
12/11/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY——1.40%1.10%
12/11/2024Federal Budget Balance-$351.0b—-$314.0b—
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%—0.20%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.30%—
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%—2.40%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%—3.10%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.50%—
12/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k—224k—
12/12/2024Continuing Claims1878k—1871k—
12/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$2760b—
12/13/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.30%—
12/13/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%—0.20%—
12/13/2024Import Price Index YoY1.10%—0.80%—
12/13/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.30%—0.80%—
12/13/2024Export Price Index YoY——-0.10%—
12/16/2024Empire Manufacturing6.6—31.2—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——49.7—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——56.1—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.9—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%—0.40%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%—0.10%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%—0.10%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.40%—-0.10%—
12/17/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-0.5—
12/17/2024Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey    
12/17/2024Industrial Production MoM0.20%—-0.30%—
12/17/2024Capacity Utilization77.20%—77.10%—
12/17/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production——-0.50%—
12/17/2024Business Inventories0.20%—0.10%—
12/17/2024NAHB Housing Market Index——46—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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