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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are little changed ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.

While fed funds futures remain effectively fully priced for a 25 basis point cut today, the market has pared back expectations for 2026 cuts in recent days, shifting from 3 cuts to just 2 (75 bps vs. 50 bps). This has coincided with a 12-20 basis point increase in Treasury yields so far in December. As for the FOMC, the rhetoric from Fed leaders since the October meeting has tilted more hawkish than dovish. Following that October 29 meeting, Powell said that a December rate cut was far from a foregone conclusion given “strongly differing views” of the policymakers on the committee, which was confirmed in the minutes of that meeting released three weeks later. This sets up for a more spirited debate at today’s meeting, and while the market is firmly priced for a rate reduction today, it may not be that cut and dry. As always, the forward guidance from Powell and the official statement will be closely scrutinized.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/10/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —4.80%-1.40%
12/10/2025Employment Cost Index0.90%0.80%0.90%
12/10/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)3.75%     —4.00%
12/10/2025FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)3.50%     —3.75%
12/10/2025Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate3.65%     —3.90%
12/10/2025Fed Reverse Repo Rate     —     —3.75%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr3.63%     —3.63%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr3.38%     —3.38%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs3.13%     —3.13%
12/10/2025FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run3.13%     —3.00%
12/10/2025Federal Budget Balance-$195.0b     —-$366.8b
12/10/2025-12/31/2025Personal Income     —     —0.40%
12/11/2025Initial Jobless Claims220k     —191k
12/11/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —214.75k
12/11/2025Continuing Claims1942k     —1939k
12/11/2025Trade Balance-$63.0b     —-$59.6b
12/11/2025Exports MoM     —     —0.10%
12/11/2025Imports MoM     —     —-5.10%
12/11/2025Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%     —     —
12/11/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.40%     —0.10%
12/15/2025Empire Manufacturing11.3     —18.7
12/15/2025NAHB Housing Market Index     —     —38
12/15/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts1329k     —1307k
12/15/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/15/2025-12/31/2025Personal Spending     —     —0.30%
12/15/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts MoM1.70%     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025Real Personal Spending     —     —0.00%
12/15/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/15/2025-12/31/2025PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.30%
12/15/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/21/2025Construction Spending MoM0.10%     —0.20%
12/15/2025-12/31/2025PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
12/15/2025-12/31/2025Core PCE Price Index MoM     —     —0.20%
12/15/2025-12/31/2025Core PCE Price Index YoY     —     —2.80%
12/15/2025-12/31/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —     —
12/15/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales709k     —800k
12/15/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-11.40%     —20.50%
12/16/2025ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate   
12/16/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls40k     —     —
12/16/2025Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —     —
12/16/2025Change in Private Payrolls40k     —     —
12/16/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —     —
12/16/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —     —
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —     —
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —     —
12/16/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —     —
12/16/2025Unemployment Rate4.40%     —     —
12/16/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —     —
12/16/2025Labor Force Participation Rate     —     —     —
12/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.30%     —0.20%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%     —0.30%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.10%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —-0.10%
12/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-21.7
12/16/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI     —     —52.2
12/16/2025S&P Global US Services PMI     —     —54.1
12/16/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.2
12/16/2025Business Inventories     —     —0.00%
12/17/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —4.80%

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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