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Author Jason Haley

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The November CPI results matched the Bloomberg median forecast across the board this morning.

Both headline and core inflation readings rose 0.3% m/m, and on a year-over-year basis, core CPI held steady at 3.3%. For the core reading, it was the fourth consecutive 0.3% reading, a level above what is consistent with a 2% annual inflation rate (the Fed’s target). Still, recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and other leaders suggested that it would likely take a reading above this level to dissuade them from a December rate cut, at least as the market interpreted it. Progress on inflation has clearly stalled since the summer, and next week we will see how comfortable the Fed is with this recent trend.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/11/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—5.40%2.80%—
12/11/2024CPI MoM0.30%0.30%0.20%—
12/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%0.30%—
12/11/2024CPI YoY2.70%2.70%2.60%—
12/11/2024CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.30%3.30%3.30%—
12/11/2024CPI Index NSA315.337315.493315.664—
12/11/2024CPI Core Index SA322.486322.657321.666—
12/11/2024Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY—1.30%1.40%—
12/11/2024Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY—1.00%1.40%1.10%
12/11/2024Federal Budget Balance-$356.0b—-$314.0b—
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%—0.20%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%—0.30%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%—0.30%—
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%—2.40%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%—3.10%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY——3.50%—
12/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k—224k—
12/12/2024Continuing Claims1878k—1871k—
12/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$2760b—
12/13/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.30%—
12/13/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%—0.20%—
12/13/2024Import Price Index YoY1.00%—0.80%—
12/13/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.30%—0.80%—
12/13/2024Export Price Index YoY0.30%—-0.10%—
12/16/2024Empire Manufacturing6.6—31.2—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——49.7—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——56.1—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.9—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%—0.40%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%—0.10%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%—0.10%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.40%—-0.10%—
12/17/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-0.5—
12/17/2024Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey    
12/17/2024Industrial Production MoM0.20%—-0.30%—
12/17/2024Capacity Utilization77.30%—77.10%—
12/17/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%—-0.50%—
12/17/2024Business Inventories0.20%—0.10%—
12/17/2024NAHB Housing Market Index46—46—
12/18/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——5.40%—
12/18/2024Building Permits1423k—1416k1416k
12/18/2024Housing Starts1344k—1311k—
12/18/2024Housing Starts MoM2.50%—-3.10%—
12/18/2024Building Permits MoM0.50%—-0.60%-0.40%
12/18/2024Current Account Balance——-$266.8b—
12/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%—4.75%—
12/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%—4.50%—
12/18/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——4.65%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr——4.38%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr——3.38%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs——2.88%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs——2.88%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run——2.88%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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