A modest risk-off rally emerged in Treasuries overnight after Oracle’s disappointing earnings release after the market close yesterday.
Yields are 1-3 basis points lower so far this morning. The Fed chose to not go against market expectations for a rate cut yesterday, lowering the fed funds target range by 25 basis points on a 9-3 vote. The guidance in the official statement was adjusted similar to December of last year, when the FOMC went on an extended pause. Powell’s comments in the press conference suggested a similar position, but then again, his comments following the October meeting suggested that pause may have begun then with no rate cut yesterday. For now, the market is going with the pause expectation, with fed funds futures pricing a low probability of a January rate cut.
The Fed also announced a resumption of Treasury purchases yesterday just 10 days after ending its balance sheet reduction regime. They appear to be looking to avoid a repeat of 2019 after reducing the balance sheet too much, fueling a spike in short-term borrowing rates. Those rates have been elevated in recent weeks despite the announced end of balance sheet reduction. The purchases will begin at $40 billion a month and be targeted at the very front-end of the curve (Treasury bills), although the statement suggested they could buy out to 3 years depending on market conditions.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/11/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 236k | 191k | 192k |
| 12/11/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 216.75k | 214.75k | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1938k | 1838k | 1939k | 1937k |
| 12/11/2025 | Trade Balance | -$63.1b | -$52.8b | -$59.6b | -$59.3b |
| 12/11/2025 | Exports MoM | — | 3.00% | 0.10% | -0.20% |
| 12/11/2025 | Imports MoM | — | 0.60% | -5.10% | -5.20% |
| 12/11/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.10% | — | — | — |
| 12/11/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | 10.5 | — | 18.7 | — |
| 12/15/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 38 | — | 38 | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Housing Starts | 1329k | — | 1307k | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Income | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Building Permits | 1350k | — | 1330k | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Spending | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.70% | — | — | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 1.50% | — | — | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/26/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales | 709k | — | 800k | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -11.40% | — | 20.50% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate | ||||
| 12/16/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 50k | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 45k | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -5k | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.60% | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.40% | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -21.7 | — |
| 12/16/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 12/16/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 54.1 | — |
| 12/16/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Business Inventories | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/17/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.80% | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 236k | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 216.75k | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1838k | — |
| 12/18/2025 | BLS Will Not Publish Oct. All-Items and Core CPI | ||||
| 12/18/2025 | CPI YoY | 3.10% | — | — | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Core CPI YoY | 3.00% | — | — | — |
| 12/18/2025 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | — | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Core CPI Index SA | — | — | — | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.1 | — | -1.7 | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 8 | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $190.1b | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $179.8b | — |
