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Author Jason Haley

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Hotter wholesale inflation data was offset by weaker labor market data to start the day.

November PPI was double expectations at 0.4% m/m, driven by a 3.1% increase in food prices, and excluding food and energy, PPI matched expectations at 0.2% m/m. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 242,000, the highest since early October following the hurricanes. The reaction in Treasuries has been minimal, with yields 1 basis point lower on the front-end of the curve. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3%, its third consecutive rate cut.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.40%0.20%0.30%
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.30%—
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.10%0.30%—
12/12/2024PPI Final Demand YoY2.60%3.00%2.40%2.60%
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY3.20%3.40%3.10%3.40%
12/12/2024PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY—3.50%3.50%—
12/12/2024Initial Jobless Claims220k242k224k225k
12/12/2024Continuing Claims1877k1886k1871k—
12/12/2024Household Change in Net Worth——$2760b—
12/13/2024Import Price Index MoM-0.20%—0.30%—
12/13/2024Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%—0.20%—
12/13/2024Import Price Index YoY1.00%—0.80%—
12/13/2024Export Price Index MoM-0.30%—0.80%—
12/13/2024Export Price Index YoY0.30%—-0.10%—
12/16/2024Empire Manufacturing5.8—31.2—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——49.7—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——56.1—
12/16/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——54.9—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%—0.40%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%—0.10%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%—0.10%—
12/17/2024Retail Sales Control Group0.40%—-0.10%—
12/17/2024New York Fed Services Business Activity——-0.5—
12/17/2024Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey    
12/17/2024Industrial Production MoM0.20%—-0.30%—
12/17/2024Capacity Utilization77.30%—77.10%—
12/17/2024Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%—-0.50%—
12/17/2024Business Inventories0.20%—0.10%—
12/17/2024NAHB Housing Market Index46—46—
12/18/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——5.40%—
12/18/2024Building Permits1423k—1416k1416k
12/18/2024Housing Starts1344k—1311k—
12/18/2024Housing Starts MoM2.50%—-3.10%—
12/18/2024Building Permits MoM0.50%—-0.60%-0.40%
12/18/2024Current Account Balance——-$266.8b—
12/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)4.50%—4.75%—
12/18/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)4.25%—4.50%—
12/18/2024Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——4.65%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr——4.38%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr——3.38%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs——2.88%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs——2.88%—
12/18/2024FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run——2.88%—
12/19/2024GDP Annualized QoQ2.80%—2.80%—
12/19/2024Personal Consumption——3.50%—
12/19/2024GDP Price Index1.90%—1.90%—
12/19/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ——2.10%—
12/19/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2.2—-5.5—
12/19/2024Initial Jobless Claims——242k—
12/19/2024Continuing Claims——1886k—
12/19/2024Leading Index-0.10%—-0.40%—
12/19/2024Existing Home Sales4.09m—3.96m—
12/19/2024Existing Home Sales MoM3.30%—3.40%—
12/19/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity——-2—
12/19/2024Total Net TIC Flows——$398.4b—
12/19/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$216.1b—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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