The Treasury curve is 2-4 basis points steeper (long-end yields higher) in quiet, pre-holiday trading activity.
There’s no data being released today, but we will hear our first public comments from Fed leaders since Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson (2026 voter) kicks things off this morning with her economic outlook, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (also 2026 voter) will speak at a separate event shortly thereafter. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (nonvoter) will speak later this morning. Fed funds futures are currently pricing for the Fed to remain on hold for the first half of 2026. Next week will be a busy economic calendar, with both the November jobs and CPI reports being released.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 12/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | 10.5 | — | 18.7 | — |
| 12/15/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 38 | — | 38 | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Housing Starts | 1329k | — | 1307k | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Income | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Building Permits | 1350k | — | 1330k | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Personal Spending | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | 1.70% | — | — | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Building Permits MoM | 1.50% | — | — | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/26/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/21/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/31/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | — | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales | 709k | — | 800k | — |
| 12/15/2025-12/19/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | -11.40% | — | 20.50% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate | ||||
| 12/16/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 50k | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 45k | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -5k | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.60% | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.40% | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | — | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 12/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -21.7 | — |
| 12/16/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 12/16/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 54.1 | — |
| 12/16/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 54.2 | — |
| 12/16/2025 | Business Inventories | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 12/17/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.80% | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 236k | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 216.75k | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1838k | — |
| 12/18/2025 | BLS Will Not Publish Oct. All-Items and Core CPI | ||||
| 12/18/2025 | CPI YoY | 3.10% | — | — | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Core CPI YoY | 3.00% | — | — | — |
| 12/18/2025 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | — | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Core CPI Index SA | — | — | — | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.1 | — | -1.7 | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | 8 | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $190.1b | — |
| 12/18/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $179.8b | — |
