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Author Conrad Lofton

Published

Estimated

The Treasury curve 1-2 basis points lower across the curve as we start the last full week of trading for 2025.

There will be two Fed speakers this morning in Fed Governor Miran and FRB NY President Williams. Markets continue to play catch up on the data front with a few big releases coming later this week. We’ll receive updated non-farm payroll numbers and CPI on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

Conrad Lofton
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/15/2025Empire Manufacturing10-3.918.7
12/15/2025NAHB Housing Market Index39     —38
12/16/2025ADP Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate   
12/16/2025BLS to Release Oct.-Nov. Jobs Data; No Oct. Unemployment Rate   
12/16/2025Change in Nonfarm Payrolls50k     —     —
12/16/2025Change in Private Payrolls40k     —     —
12/16/2025Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k     —     —
12/16/2025Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —     —
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —     —
12/16/2025Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%     —     —
12/16/2025Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.2     —     —
12/16/2025Unemployment Rate4.50%     —     —
12/16/2025Underemployment Rate     —     —     —
12/16/2025Labor Force Participation Rate62.40%     —     —
12/16/2025Retail Sales Advance MoM0.10%     —0.20%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.20%     —0.30%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%     —0.10%
12/16/2025Retail Sales Control Group0.40%     —-0.10%
12/16/2025New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-21.7
12/16/2025S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52     —52.2
12/16/2025S&P Global US Services PMI54     —54.1
12/16/2025S&P Global US Composite PMI     —     —54.2
12/16/2025Business Inventories0.10%     —0.00%
12/17/2025MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —4.80%
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts1328k     —1307k
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits1350k     —1330k
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Housing Starts MoM1.60%     —     —
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Building Permits MoM1.50%     —     —
12/17/2025-12/21/2025Construction Spending MoM0.00%     —0.20%
12/17/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales718k     —800k
12/17/2025-12/19/2025New Home Sales MoM-10.30%     —20.50%
12/18/2025Initial Jobless Claims225k     —236k
12/18/2025Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —216.75k
12/18/2025Continuing Claims1938k     —1838k
12/18/2025BLS Will Not Publish Oct. All-Items and Core CPI   
12/18/2025CPI YoY3.10%     —     —
12/18/2025Core CPI YoY3.00%     —     —
12/18/2025CPI Index NSA325.189     —     —
12/18/2025Core CPI Index SA332.06     —     —
12/18/2025Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —0.80%
12/18/2025Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —0.70%
12/18/2025Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2.3     —-1.7
12/18/2025Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity     —     —8
12/18/2025Total Net TIC Flows     —     —$190.1b
12/18/2025Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$179.8b
12/19/2025Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey   
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales4.15m     —4.10m
12/19/2025Existing Home Sales MoM1.20%     —1.20%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Sentiment53.5     —53.3
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —50.7
12/19/2025U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —55
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.10%
12/19/2025U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.20%
12/19/2025Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —-7
12/20/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/20/2025-12/31/2025New Home Sales     —     —     —
12/20/2025-12/31/2025New Home Sales MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Housing Starts MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/30/2025Business Inventories     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-1/02/2026Building Permits MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/26/2025Construction Spending MoM     —     —     —
12/22/2025-12/31/2025Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —-0.20%

Conrad Lofton

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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