Treasury yields are 2 to 3 bps lower to start the week and equity futures are once again in positive territory.
Futures on the S&P and Dow are up 0.73% and 0.54% respectively. This performance comes in spite of weak economic data out of Europe and Asia as traders have shifted their focus to a slew of policy rate decisions this week, headlined by the FOMC on Wednesday. The market is pricing in a 25 bps cut which could serve as a tailwind to continued strength in risk assets.
Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 12/16/24 | Empire Manufacturing | 10 | 0.2 | 31.2 |
| 12/16/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.5 | — | 49.7 |
| 12/16/24 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 55.8 | — | 56.1 |
| 12/16/24 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 55.1 | — | 54.9 |
| 12/17/24 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% |
| 12/17/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/17/24 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/17/24 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |
| 12/17/24 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -0.5 |
| 12/17/24 | Bloomberg Dec. United States Economic Survey | |||
| 12/17/24 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% |
| 12/17/24 | Capacity Utilization | 77.30% | — | 77.10% |
| 12/17/24 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.50% | — | -0.50% |
| 12/17/24 | Business Inventories | 0.10% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/17/24 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 47 | — | 46 |
| 12/18/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 5.40% |
| 12/18/24 | Housing Starts | 1343k | — | 1311k |
| 12/18/24 | Housing Starts MoM | 2.40% | — | -3.10% |
| 12/18/24 | Building Permits | 1430k | — | 1416k |
| 12/18/24 | Building Permits MoM | 1.00% | — | -0.60% |
| 12/18/24 | Current Account Balance | -$287.1b | — | -$266.8b |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.75% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.50% |
| 12/18/24 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 4.40% | — | 4.65% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Current Yr | 4.38% | — | 4.38% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Next Yr | 3.63% | — | 3.38% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +2 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 2.88% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: +3 Yrs | 3.13% | — | 2.88% |
| 12/18/24 | FOMC Median Rate Forecast: Long-Run | 3.00% | — | 2.88% |
| 12/19/24 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.80% | — | 2.80% |
| 12/19/24 | Personal Consumption | 3.70% | — | 3.50% |
| 12/19/24 | GDP Price Index | 1.90% | — | 1.90% |
| 12/19/24 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 2.10% | — | 2.10% |
| 12/19/24 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.9 | — | -5.5 |
| 12/19/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 229k | — | 242k |
| 12/19/24 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1886k |
| 12/19/24 | Leading Index | -0.10% | — | -0.40% |
| 12/19/24 | Existing Home Sales | 4.08m | — | 3.96m |
| 12/19/24 | Existing Home Sales MoM | 3.00% | — | 3.40% |
| 12/19/24 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -2 |
| 12/19/24 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $398.4b |
| 12/19/24 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $216.1b |
| 12/20/24 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.60% |
| 12/20/24 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.40% |
| 12/20/24 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.10% |
| 12/20/24 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% |
| 12/20/24 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.30% |
| 12/20/24 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 12/20/24 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.80% |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 74 | — | 74 |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 77.7 |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 71.6 |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% |
| 12/20/24 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.10% |
| 12/20/24 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 9 |
